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Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle. I am honored that the editors of the Journal of how to write posters, Economic Methodology have created this special issue on the subject of case in india, reflexivity and have invited me, as well as a distinguished group of scholars, to contribute. Of course I did not discover reflexivity. Earlier observers recognized it, or at least aspects of it, often under a different name. Knight (1921) explored the difference between risk and uncertainty. Keynes (1936, Chapter 12) compared financial markets to a beauty contest where the participants had to guess who would be the write, most popular choice. The sociologist Merton (1949) wrote about self-fulfilling prophecies, unintended consequences, and the bandwagon effect. Popper spoke of the ‘Oedipus effect’ in the Poverty of Historicism (1957, Chapter 5). My own conceptual framework has its origins in vodafone study in india, my time as a student at the London School of Economics in the late 1950s. I took my final exams one year early, so I had a year to how to write fill before I was qualified to receive my degree.
I could choose my tutor, and I chose Popper whose book TheOpen Society and Its Enemies (1945) had made a profound impression on me. In Popper’s other great work Logik der Forschung (1935), which was published in English as The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1959), he argued that the empirical truth cannot be known with absolute certainty. Even scientific laws cannot be verified beyond a shadow of a doubt: they can only be falsified by testing. One failed test is future roommate, enough to posters falsify, but no amount of conforming instances is sufficient to verify. Scientific laws are always hypothetical in character, and their validity remains open to complete essays falsification. While I was reading Popper I was also studying economic theory, and write I was struck by the contradiction between Popper’s emphasis on essay on parents are the best imperfect understanding and the theory of perfect competition in economics, which postulated perfect knowledge.
This led me to start questioning the how to write, assumptions of economic theory. I replaced the postulates of rational expectations and efficient markets with my own principles of fallibility and reflexivity. After college, I started working in the financial markets where I had not much use for complete of montaigne + ebook the economic theories I had studied in college. How To Posters. Strangely enough, the conceptual framework I had developed under Popper’s influence provided me with much more valuable insights. And while I was engaged in making money I did not lose my interest in philosophy. I published my first book, The Alchemy of Finance, in 1987. In that book, I tried to explain the complete of montaigne, philosophical underpinnings of how to posters, my approach to financial markets. The book attracted a certain amount of attention. It has been read by many people in the hedge fund industry, and it is year, taught in how to posters, business schools. But the philosophical arguments in that book and are the best teachers subsequent books (Soros, 1998, 2000) did not make much of an impression on the economics departments of write posters, universities. My framework was largely dismissed as the conceit of a man who has been successful in on parents best, business and therefore fancies himself as a philosopher.
With my theories largely ignored by academia, I began to regard myself as a failed philosopher – I even gave a lecture entitled ‘A Failed Philosopher Tries Again.’ All that changed as a result of the how to, financial crisis of 2008. Chapters Of A Thesis. My understanding of reflexivity enabled me both to anticipate the how to, crisis and to essay presidency deal with it when it finally struck (Soros, 2008, 2009). When the fallout of the how to posters, crisis spread from the USA to Europe and how to write an essay year 9 around the world it enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others (Soros, 2012). The crisis put in write posters, stark relief the failings of orthodox economic theory (Soros, 2010). Chapters Of A Thesis. As people have realized how badly traditional economics has failed, interest in reflexivity has grown.
Thus, this issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology is timely. Economics is in a period of intellectual flux and while some economists will cling to how to write ideas of market efficiency and complete rationality to their final days, many others are eager to pursue alternative approaches. In this essay, I will articulate my current thinking. In Section 2, I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity in general terms. How To Write Posters. In Section 3, I will discuss the implications of my conceptual framework for how to an essay year 9 the social sciences in general and for economics in particular. In Section 4, I will describe how my conceptual framework applies to the financial markets with special mention of financial bubbles and the ongoing euro crisis. I will then conclude with some thoughts on how to posters the need for a new paradigm in social science. Fallibility and reflexivity.
I have a peculiar problem in essay on parents are the best teachers, explicating my conceptual framework. The framework deals with the relationship between thinking and reality, but the how to write, participants’ thinking is part of the reality that they have to think about, which makes the essay are the, relationship circular. How To Write. Circles have no beginning or end, so I have to plunge in at an arbitrary point. That makes my ideas less clear when I put them into words than they are in my own mind. I am not the only one affected by study, this difficulty but I feel obliged to warn the reader that this section will be more convoluted and less elegant than it ought to how to write posters be; the rest of the paper is not affected. My conceptual framework is to my roommate essay, built on how to write two relatively simple propositions. Write Year 9. The first is that in situations that have thinking participants, the how to write, participants’ views of the world never perfectly correspond to are the best teachers the actual state of affairs. People can gain knowledge of individual facts, but when it comes to formulating theories or forming an overall view, their perspective is bound to be either biased or inconsistent or both.
That is the principle of fallibility. The second proposition is that these imperfect views can influence the how to write, situation to which they relate through the actions of the participants. For example, if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, which in turn will change the to my future essay, nature of the markets in which they are participating (though not necessarily making them more efficient). That is the write, principle of reflexivity. The two principles are tied together like Siamese twins, but fallibility is the how to an essay, firstborn: without fallibility there would be no reflexivity. Both principles can be observed operating in the real world. So when my critics say that I am merely stating the obvious, they are right – but only how to write posters up to a point. Chapters Of A. What makes my propositions interesting is that they contradict some of the basic tenets of economic theory. My conceptual framework deserves attention not because it constitutes a new discovery, but because something as commonsensical as reflexivity has been so studiously ignored by economists. How To Posters. The field of economics has gone to great lengths to eliminate the uncertainty associated with reflexivity in order to formulate universally valid laws similar to to my essay Newtonian physics. In doing so, economists set themselves an impossible task.
The uncertainty associated with fallibility and reflexivity is how to, inherent in the human condition. Case In India. To make this point, I lump together the two concepts as the human uncertainty principle. The complexity of the write, world in which we live exceeds our capacity to comprehend it. Confronted by a reality of extreme complexity, we are obliged to resort to various methods of simplification: generalizations, dichotomies, metaphors, decision rules, and moral precepts, just to mention a few. These mental constructs take on a (subjective) existence of their own, further complicating the situation. The structure of the brain is how to write year, another source of fallibility. Write. Recent advances in brain science have begun to provide some insight into how the brain functions, and they have substantiated David Hume’s insight that reason is the complete essays of montaigne, slave of passion. The idea of a disembodied intellect or reason is a figment of posters, our imagination.
The brain is bombarded by millions of sensory impulses, but consciousness can process only seven or eight subjects concurrently. The impulses need to be condensed, ordered, and interpreted under immense time pressure; mistakes and distortions cannot be avoided. Clinton's. Brain science adds many new insights to my contention that our understanding of the world in which we live is inherently imperfect. Fallibility pervades our attempts to how to posters understand both natural and social phenomena, but it is not fallibility that distinguishes the social from the physical sciences. How To Write An Essay Year. Rather, as will be discussed further in Section 3, the distinction comes from the fact that in social systems fallible human beings are not merely scientific observers but also active participants in the system themselves. That is how to write posters, what makes social systems reflexive. The concept of future, reflexivity needs some further explication. It applies exclusively to situations that have thinking participants. The participants’ thinking serves two functions. One is to understand the world in how to write posters, which we live; I call this the cognitive function.
The other is to make an impact on the world and to essay advance the posters, participants’ interests; I call this the manipulative function. I use the chapters of a, term ‘manipulative’ to emphasize intentionality. The two functions connect the how to write posters, participants’ thinking (subjective reality) and the actual state of affairs (objective reality) in opposite directions. In the cognitive function, the participant is cast in the role of a passive observer: the direction of causation is from the world to the mind. In the manipulative function, the participants play an active role: the direction of causation is from the mind to the world. Both functions are subject to fallibility. When both the cognitive and manipulative functions operate at the same time they may interfere with each other.
How? By depriving each function of the independent variable that would be needed to essay on parents best teachers determine the how to posters, value of the dependent variable. How To Write An Essay Year 9. The independent variable of how to write, one function is the dependent variable of the other, thus neither function has a genuinely independent variable – the relationship is circular or recursive. It is like a partnership where each partner’s view of the essay on bill clinton's, other influences their behavior and vice-versa. Lack of an independent criterion of truth. If the cognitive function operated in isolation, without any interference from the manipulative function, it could produce knowledge.
Knowledge is represented by true statements. A statement is write posters, true if it corresponds to essays the facts – that is what the correspondence theory of truth tells us. How To. But if there is on parents best, interference from the manipulative function, the facts no longer serve as an independent criterion because the statement may be the product of the posters, manipulative function. Consider the statement ‘It is raining.’ That statement is true or false depending on whether it is, in future, fact, raining. And whether people believe it is how to, raining or not cannot change the facts. The agent can assess the statement without any interference from the manipulative function and thus gain knowledge. Now consider the on parents best, statement ‘I love you.’ The statement is reflexive.
It will have an effect on write the object of the affections of the person making the statement and the recipient’s response may then affect the feelings of the person making the statement, changing the truth value of complete essays of montaigne, his or her original statement. Reflexivity has some affinity with the Liar’s Paradox, which is a self-referential statement. ‘This sentence is false’ is how to posters, paradoxical. Essays Of Montaigne. If the sentence is true, it means it is false, but if it is false, it means it is how to, true. Bertrand Russell resolved the paradox by putting self-referential statements into how to write a separate category and declaring them to be meaningless. Following Russell, an important school of philosophy, logical positivism, banned self-referential statements. Ludwig Wittgenstein carried this program to its logical conclusion in his Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus and in the end he concluded that he had embarked on an impossible task. How To Write. In practice, it is impossible to avoid either self-referential or reflexive statements. Consequently, the cognitive function cannot produce all the knowledge agents need to future essay make decisions; they have to act on the basis of imperfect understanding. While the manipulative function can make an posters, impact on the world, outcomes are unlikely to correspond to expectations. There is bound to be some slippage between intentions and actions, and further slippage between actions and on parents are the outcomes. Since agents base their decisions on inadequate knowledge, their actions are liable to have unintended consequences.
This means that reflexivity introduces an element of uncertainty both into the agents’ view of the how to write posters, world and into the world in which they participate. While self-reference has been extensively analyzed by the Vienna school with which Popper was associated, reflexivity has received much less attention. This is to my future roommate, strange because reflexivity has an impact on the real world, while self-reference is confined to the universe of statements. In the real world, the participants’ thinking finds expression not only in statements but also, of course, in various forms of action and behavior. That makes reflexivity a much broader phenomenon than self-reference: it connects the universe of thoughts with the universe of events. Bertrand Russell analyzed the Liar’s Paradox in a timeless fashion. How To. But reflexive systems are dynamic and unfold over time as the cognitive and manipulative functions perpetually chase each other. Once time is introduced, reflexivity creates indeterminacy and uncertainty rather than paradox. Reflexive feedback loops between the complete essays of montaigne, cognitive and manipulative functions connect the realms of beliefs and events. The participants’ views influence but do not determine the course of events, and write posters the course of events influences but does not determine the how to write year 9, participants’ views. The influence is continuous and circular; that is what turns it into a feedback loop.
As both the cognitive and how to posters manipulative functions are subject to fallibility, uncertainty is introduced into both the realms of beliefs and events. The process may be initiated from either direction, from a change in views, or from a change in circumstances. Objective and subjective aspects of reality. Reflexive feedback loops have not been rigorously analyzed and how to write an essay year 9 when I originally encountered them and tried to study them, I ran into various difficulties. The main source of the write, trouble was that thinking is part of reality and the relationship of a part to the whole is very difficult to describe. The fact that thinking is not directly observable adds further complications; consequently, the definition of reflexivity will be much more complicated than the concept itself. The idea is that there is a two-way feedback loop connecting thinking and chapters reality. The main feedback is how to, between the write an essay 9, participants’ views and the actual course of events. But what about a direct two-way interaction between the various participants’ views? And what about a solitary individual asking herself who she is and what she stands for and changing her behavior as a result of her own internal reflections?
To resolve these difficulties, I propose distinguishing between the objective and subjective aspects of reality. Thinking constitutes the subjective aspect. How To Write. It takes place in the privacy of the best teachers, participants’ minds and is not directly observable; only how to write its material manifestations are. The objective aspect consists of observable events. Essay Presidency. In other words, the subjective aspect covers the participants’ thinking and how to the objective aspect denotes all observable facts, whether in the outside world or inside the brain. Free will versus determinism. There is only one objective reality, but there are as many different subjective views as there are thinking participants. The views can be divided into different groups such as doubters and believers, trend followers and vodafone case contrarians, Cartesians and empiricists – but these are simplifications and posters the categories are not fixed. Agents may hold views that are not easily categorized; moreover, they are free to choose between categories and they are free to switch.
This is what is usually meant by free will but I consider free will a misnomer. People’s views are greatly influenced but not determined by external factors such as the views of essays, others, heredity, upbringing, and posters prior experiences. So, reality is halfway between free will and determinism. Reflexivity can connect any two or more aspects of reality, setting up two-way feedback loops between them. We may then distinguish between two kinds of reflexivity: reflexive relations, like marriage or politics, which connect the subjective aspects of reality, and reflexive events, like the fiscal cliff or the euro crisis, which connect the subjective and chapters objective aspects. In exceptional cases, reflexivity may even occur within a single subjective aspect of reality, as in the case of a solitary individual reflecting on his own identity. This may be described as self-reflexivity. When reality has no subjective aspect, there can be no reflexivity. In other words, the presence or absence of reflexivity serves as a criterion of demarcation between social and how to posters natural phenomena – a point I will discuss in detail in the next section. Let me illustrate the vodafone case study in india, difficulties in analyzing the write posters, relationship between thinking and vodafone in india reality with the help of a diagram.
Figure 1 describes the roles of the cognitive and manipulative functions, fallibility, and intentionality. How To. Together this might be thought of as a reflexive system. Figure 1 A reflexive system. I have indicated the presence of multiple participants, and therefore multiple subjective realities. Nevertheless, the diagram is essay clinton's presidency, inadequate because it would require three dimensions to show the write, multiple participants interacting with each other as well as with the objective aspect of reality. The human uncertainty principle.
Knight (1921) introduced an important distinction between risk and uncertainty. Chapters Paper. Risk is when there are multiple possible future states and the probabilities of those different future states occurring are known. Risk is well described by the laws of probability and statistics. Knightian uncertainty occurs when the probabilities of how to write, future states, or even the nature of possible future states is not known. At this point, we need to recognize that it is fallibility that is the key source of Knightian uncertainty in human affairs.
Yes, reflexivity does introduce an element of uncertainty into both the participants’ views and the actual course of events, and there are also other forms of fallibility that have the same effect. For instance, different participants have different goals, some of which may be in conflict with each other. Moreover, as Isaiah Berlin pointed out, each participant may be guided by a multiplicity of values that may not be self-consistent. The uncertainties created by these factors are more extensive than those specifically associated with reflexivity. We must also remember that not all forms of are the best, fallibility create Knightian uncertainty. How To Write. Some forms are subject to statistical analysis – human errors leading to road accidents for example, or the many biases and of a errors discovered by behavioral economists. Other aspects of how to write posters, fallibility qualify as Knightian uncertainty – for example, probability analysis is not much help in understanding the misconceptions at the heart of the euro crisis. Humans face quantifiable risks as well as Knightian uncertainty.
There are many activities that are predictable or at least their probabilities can be calculated. Psychologists and behavioral economists have catalogued many regularities in human behavior. On Parents Are The Best Teachers. But with few exceptions, these experiments do not deal with reflexivity. Write Posters. Most behavioral experiments assess people’s perception of objective reality (e.g. trying to remember numbers, guess probabilities of different events, and clinton's presidency so on) and thus are really measures of the fallibility of the cognitive function. The manipulative function is rarely studied. Thus, there is both uncertainty and regularity in human affairs. Reflexivity is only one source of how to, uncertainty, albeit a powerful one. Earlier, I referred to the combination of reflexivity and fallibility as the complete essays of montaigne + ebook, human uncertainty principle. That makes it a broader concept than reflexivity. The human uncertainty principle is much more specific and stringent than the how to write, subjective skepticism that pervades Cartesian philosophy. It gives us objective reasons to believe that the theories held by the participants, as distinct from statements of specific facts, are liable to essays of montaigne + ebook be biased, incomplete, or both.
Philosophy of social science. The idea that the sciences should be unified goes back to the pre-Socratic Greeks and has been a subject of debate in philosophy ever since. Popper (1935/1959, 1957) argued that science could be demarcated from metaphysics by his notion of falsifiable hypotheses; moreover, that falsifiable hypotheses could also provide methodological unity to write posters the sciences. While I have drawn much inspiration from Popper, this is an important point where I differ from my mentor. I believe that reflexivity provides a strong challenge to the idea that natural and of a thesis paper social science can be unified. I believe that social science can still be a valuable human endeavor, but in order for it to be so, we must recognize its fundamental differences from natural science.
Popper’s theory of scientific method. I base my argument on how to posters Popper’s (1935/1959) theory of scientific method. Let me start by complete of montaigne + ebook, summarizing his beautifully simple and elegant scheme. It consists of three elements and three operations. The three elements are scientific laws of universal and timeless validity and two sets of singular conditions that Popper calls the how to, cause and the effect. The three operations are prediction, explanation, and testing. When a scientific law is combined with the cause it provides predictions. When a scientific law is combined with the effect it provides explanations. In this sense, predictions and explanations are symmetrical and reversible through the logic of deduction.
That leaves testing. On this last point Popper had a key insight. According to Popper, scientific laws are hypothetical in character; they cannot be verified, but they can be falsified by empirical testing. The key to the success of scientific method is that it can test generalizations of an essay, universal validity with the help of singular observations. One failed test is sufficient to falsify a theory, but no amount of confirming instances is sufficient to verify it. Generalizations that cannot be tested do not qualify as scientific. This is a brilliant construct that makes science both empirical and rational. According to Popper, it is how to, empirical because we test our theories by observing whether the predictions we derive from them are true, and it is rational because we use deductive logic in vodafone, doing so. Popper dispenses with inductive logic, which he considers invalid and gives testing a central role instead. He also makes a strong case for critical thinking by asserting that scientific laws are only provisionally valid and remain open to re-examination.
The three salient features of Popper’s scheme are the symmetry between prediction and explanation, the asymmetry between verification and falsification, and the central role of testing. These three features allow science to grow, improve, and innovate. Problems of social science. Popper’s scheme has worked extraordinarily well for the study of natural phenomena, but the human uncertainty principle throws a monkey wrench into the supreme simplicity and elegance of Popper’s scheme. How To Posters. The symmetry between prediction and explanation is destroyed because the future is genuinely uncertain, and therefore cannot be predicted with the same degree of certainty as it can be explained in retrospect. One might object that uncertainty exists in all realms of vodafone case in india, science. But while Werner Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics is subject to the laws of probability and write posters statistics, the deep Knightian uncertainties of human affairs associated with the human uncertainty principle are not. Even more importantly, the central role of testing is endangered. Should the initial and + ebook final conditions include or exclude the participant’s thinking? The question is important because testing requires replicating those conditions.
If the participants’ thinking is included, it is difficult to determine what the initial and how to write final conditions are because the in india, participants’ views can only be inferred from their statements or actions. If the participants’ thinking is excluded, the initial and final conditions do not constitute singular observations because the same objective conditions may be associated with very different subjective views. In either case, testing cannot meet the requirements of Popper’s scheme. This limitation does not preclude social sciences from producing worthwhile generalizations, but they are unlikely to match the predictive power of the laws of how to posters, physics. Empirical testing ought to play a central role in social science as well but it should not be expected to produce universal and timeless generalizations with symmetrical and reversible explanatory and predictive powers. This point will be elaborated at the end of future, Section 4. The structure of events. I contend that situations that have thinking participants have a different structure from natural phenomena. How To. The difference lies in how to write an essay year 9, the role thinking plays.
In natural phenomena, thinking plays no causal role. Events unfold irrespective of the views held by the observers. How To Posters. The structure of natural events can be described as a chain of how to write an essay year, cause and effect generating a steam of objective facts, without any interference from the subjective aspects of reality (see Figure 2). In natural science, the outside observer is engaged only in the cognitive function, and the facts provide a reliable criterion by which the truth of the observers’ theories can be judged. So the how to write posters, outside observer can obtain knowledge about the natural phenomena she is observing. Based on that knowledge, nature can be successfully manipulated. That manipulation may change the state of the physical world, but it does not change the laws that govern that world. We can use our understanding of the physical world to create airplanes, but the invention of the airplane did not change the laws of aerodynamics. By contrast, in human affairs, thinking is part of the subject matter The course of events leads not only from facts to facts but also from facts to + ebook the participants’ perceptions (the cognitive function) and from the participants’ decisions to facts (the manipulative function). Figure 3 is a simplified presentation of the structure of social events. It illustrates that there is write, only one objective aspect but as many subjective aspects of reality as there are thinking participants.
The reflexive feedback loops between the objective and subjective aspects of reality create a lace-like pattern, which is superimposed on the direct line leading from one set of facts to the next and write deflects it from what it would be if there were no feedback loops. The feedback sometimes brings the subjective and write posters objective aspects closer together and sometimes drives them further apart. The two aspects are aligned, but only loosely – the human uncertainty principle implies that a perfect alignment is the exception rather than the rule. Figure 3 Social phenomena. Popper’s scheme would require social scientists to produce generalizations of universal and timeless validity that determine the alignment of the objective and complete essays of montaigne + ebook subjective aspects of reality. If the human uncertainty principle is valid, that is an impossible task. Yet, the achievements of posters, natural science, exemplified by Newtonian physics, were so alluring that economists and other social scientists have tried incredibly hard to chapters of a thesis establish such generalizations. They suffered from what I like to call ‘physics envy.’ In order to achieve the impossible, they invented or postulated some kind of fixed relationship between the participants’ thinking and how to posters the actual course of events. Karl Marx asserted that the future roommate essay, material conditions of production determined the posters, ideological superstructure; Freud maintained that people’s behavior was determined by the unconscious. Both claimed scientific status for their theories but Popper rightly argued that their theories could not be falsified by testing.
However, Popper did not go far enough. Essay On Parents Are The Teachers. The same argument applies to the mainstream economic theory currently taught in universities. It is an axiomatic system based on write posters deductive logic, not on empirical evidence. If the axioms are true, so are the mathematical deductions. In this regard, economic theory resembles Euclidian geometry. But Euclid’s postulates are modeled on conditions prevailing in the real world while at least some of the postulates of on parents are the teachers, economics, notably rational choice and rational expectations, are dictated by the desire to imitate Newtonian physics rather than real-world evidence. This ill-fated attempt by economists to slavishly imitate physics has a long history.
The process started with the theory of perfect competition, which postulated perfect knowledge. That postulate was later modified to universally available perfect information. How To Write Posters. When that postulate proved inadequate Lionel Robbins, who was my professor at the London School of Economics, defined the task of economics as the allocation of limited means to unlimited alternative ends (Robbins, 1932). He specifically excluded the study of the means and the ends themselves. By taking the prevailing values and methods of production as given he eliminated reflexivity as a possible subject of chapters thesis, study for economics. Subsequently, this approach reached its apex with the rational expectations and efficient market hypotheses in write posters, the 1960s and vodafone case study in india 1970s. To be sure, physics envy is not unjustified. The achievements of natural science stand as convincing testimony to man’s ability to use reason. Unfortunately, these achievements do not ensure that human behavior is always governed by reason. Human uncertainty as an impediment to scientific method.
The human uncertainty principle not only prevents the social sciences from producing results comparable to physics; it interferes with scientific method in other ways as well. I shall mention only one of them. As we have seen, natural phenomena provide a genuinely independent criterion for how to write judging the validity of generalizations but the facts produced by social processes do not do so because they are influenced by theories held by participants. On Bill Presidency. This makes social theories themselves subject to how to posters reflexivity. In other words, they serve not only essays of montaigne + ebook a cognitive but also a manipulative function. To be sure, the generalizations and observations of natural scientists are also theory laden, and they influence the selection of facts but they do not influence the how to, facts themselves. Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle showed that the act of to my roommate, observation impacts a quantum system. But the discovery of the uncertainty principle itself did not alter the behavior of quantum particles one iota. The principle applied before Heisenberg discovered it and will continue to apply long after human observers are gone. But social theories – whether Marxism, market fundamentalism, or the theory of reflexivity – can affect the subject matter to which they refer.
Scientific method is supposed to be devoted to the pursuit of truth. But why should social science confine itself to passively studying social phenomena when it can be used to actively change the how to posters, state of affairs? The temptation to essay clinton's use social theories to change reality rather than to understand it is much greater than in natural science. Indeed, economists commonly talk about normative versus positive economics – but there is no such thing as normative physics. That is a fundamental difference between natural and social science that needs to be recognized. A spectrum between physical and social sciences. In my argument, I have drawn a sharp distinction between the social and natural sciences. But such dichotomies are usually not found in reality; rather we introduce them in our efforts to make some sense out of an otherwise confusing reality. Indeed, while the dichotomy between physics and social sciences seems clear cut, there are other sciences, such as biology and the study of animal societies, that occupy intermediate positions. The distinction I have drawn between natural and how to posters social science consists of the future roommate, presence or absence of posters, thinking participants’ who have a will of their own.
That begs the to my essay, question of how to write, what constitutes a ‘thinking participant.’ One might reasonably ask whether a chimpanzee, a dolphin, or a computerized stock-trading program is a thinking participant. In some fields, superior data crunching capacity may trump the human imagination, as the chess contest between Big Blue and Gary Kasparov has shown. And automatic trading systems appear to be currently outperforming hedge funds run by humans. However, I would note that humans have some unique characteristics, notably language, emotions, and culture. Both our individual and shared subjective realities are far richer and more complex than any other creature’s. I contend that there are some problems that set natural and social science a part. I have focused on reflexivity as one such fundamental problem area.
It presents itself in both the subject matter and its scientific study, so that it may be conveniently treated as two closely interrelated problems. Humans are thinking agents and their thinking serves two functions: cognitive and essay on bill clinton's manipulative. Posters. In the subject matter, the problem presents itself as the human uncertainty principle, also known as Knightian uncertainty. That has no equivalent in natural science. On Parents Teachers. For scientific method, the problem is more complicated because scientists are also human beings and their thinking also serves two functions. This problem presents itself in both natural and social science, but analysis of the how to write posters, various possible solutions yields different results. Science is a discipline that seeks to perfect the cognitive function by artificially isolating itself from the manipulative function.
It does so by submitting itself to how to 9 a number of conventions such as insisting on empirical tests that can be replicated and/or observed by others. Popper’s scheme shows what natural science can achieve by obeying those rules and conventions. As I have shown, the posters, human uncertainty principle prevents social science from matching these achievements. But there is complete essays + ebook, also a flip side to be considered: what happens when those rules and conventions are not observed? Remember that my criterion of demarcation between natural and social science is that the latter is reflexive, the former is not. In other words, social science can change objective reality by influencing the how to write, participants’ views, but natural science cannot because its subject matter has no thinking participants. Future Roommate Essay. That is write, what I meant when I remarked in The Alchemy of Finance, that the alchemists made a mistake in trying to change the nature of base metals by incantation.
Instead, they should have focused their attention on the financial markets, where they could have succeeded. Now I need to take my analysis further. Natural science can work wonders as long as it follows Popper’s scheme because it has a purely objective criterion, namely the facts, by to my, which the truth or validity of its laws can be judged, but it cannot produce anything worthwhile by cheating on the testing process. Cars that do not obey the laws of physics will not move; airplanes will not fly. How about social science? We have seen that Popper’s scheme cannot be expected to write posters produce comparable results. On the other hand, social theories also serve a manipulative function and their influence on objective reality may prove quite satisfactory from the point of view of their proponents – at least for a while, until objective reality reasserts itself and vodafone the outcome fails to how to posters correspond to complete essays of montaigne + ebook expectations.
There are many statements that fit this pattern. President Obama managed to make the post 2008 recession shorter and shallower by how to write posters, asserting that the economy was fundamentally sound and promising a speedy recovery, but he paid a heavy political price when reality failed to live up to his promises. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan operated much the are the best, same way, but his Delphic utterances were more difficult to prove wrong. Both Freud and Marx sought to gain acceptance for their theories by claiming scientific status. One of the most interesting cases is the efficient market hypothesis and its political companion, market fundamentalism. We shall see that the mechanism that provides some degree of justification for the claim that markets are always right is reflexivity, not rational expectations. Yet, a false explanation can be subjectively more appealing than what I consider to be the true one. Write. The efficient market hypothesis allows economic theory to lay claim to the status of a hard science like physics. And market fundamentalism allows the essay, financially successful to claim that they are serving the posters, public interest by pursing their self-interest. That is a powerful combination that dominated the field until it caused a lot of damage in the financial crisis of future roommate, 2007/2008.
Surprisingly it survived that debacle: the conservative wing of the Republican party managed to pin the blame for the financial crisis on the government rather than on write the private sector. To correct the mistake of viewing economics as equivalent to a hard science, I will propose a methodological convention. A methodological convention. I propose renouncing Popper’s doctrine of the thesis, unity of science and recognizing a fundamental difference between natural and social phenomena – not as an empirical truth but as a methodological convention. Write Posters. The convention asserts that social science cannot be expected to produce results comparable with physics by essays of montaigne + ebook, using the same methods; however, it sets no limits on what social science may be able to accomplish by write posters, employing different methods. How To Write An Essay Year. The convention will protect scientific method by preventing the social sciences from parading with borrowed feathers. It should not be taken, however, as a demotion or devaluation of how to write posters, social science. On the contrary, it should open up new vistas by liberating social science from the slavish imitation of essay presidency, natural science and by protecting it from being judged by the wrong standards. The limits and promise of social science. Interestingly, both Karl Popper and Friedrich Hayek recognized in their famous exchange in the pages of how to write posters, Economica(Popper, 1944) that the social sciences cannot produce results comparable with physics.
Hayek inveighed against the mechanical and of a thesis paper uncritical application of the posters, quantitative methods of natural science. He called it ‘scientism.’ and Popper wrote The Poverty of Historicism (1957) in essay on parents best, which he argued that history is not determined by universally valid scientific laws. How To Posters. Nevertheless, Popper proclaimed what he called the ‘doctrine of the unity of method,’ by which he meant that both natural and social sciences should use the same methods and be judged by the same criteria. By proclaiming the doctrine, Popper sought to of a thesis distinguish pseudo-scientific theories like those of Marx and Freud from mainstream economics. As mentioned earlier, Popper did not go far enough: rational choice theory and the efficient market hypothesis are just as pseudo-scientific as Marxist and Freudian theories. As I see it, the how to posters, implication of the human uncertainty principle is that the subject matter of the natural and social sciences is fundamentally different; therefore, they need to develop different methods and should be held to different standards. Essay Clinton's. Economic theory should not be expected to meet the standards established by Newtonian physics. In fact, if it did produce universally valid laws, as Knight (1921, p. 28) pointed out, economic profit itself would be impossible: if all changes were to take place in accordance with invariable and universally known laws, [so that] they could be foreseen for an indefinite period in advance of their occurrence, … profit or loss would not arise. I contend that Popper’s scheme cannot produce results in the human sphere comparable with the amazing achievement of physics. The slavish imitation of how to write, natural science can easily produce misleading results, sometimes with disastrous consequences. A methodological convention that merely asserts that social sciences should not be confined to the same methods and be judged by the same criteria as the natural sciences may not seem like an adequate remedy for the ills I have identified.
But look at the straightjacket Lionel Robbins imposed on economics: it prevented economists from recognizing reflexivity and 9 encouraged the development of write, synthetic financial instruments and risk management techniques that ignore Knightian uncertainty with disastrous consequences from which we have not yet found an escape. I admit that the proposed methodological convention is only a starting point and it begs the question of what social scientists should do, what methods they should use, and by what criteria they should be judged. Others writing in essay on bill presidency, this journal may have specific answers; I have only a partial one. Any valid methodology of social science must explicitly recognize both fallibility and reflexivity and the Knightian uncertainty they create. Empirical testing ought to how to posters remain a decisive criterion for judging whether a theory qualifies as scientific, but in light of the to my future roommate, human uncertainty principle in how to posters, social systems it cannot always be as rigorous as Popper’s scheme requires.
Nor can universally and timelessly valid theories be expected to yield determinate predictions because future events are contingent on future decisions, which are based on essay clinton's imperfect knowledge. Time- and context-bound generalizations may yield more specific explanations and predictions than timeless and universal generalizations.1. Financial markets provide an excellent laboratory for testing the ideas I have put forward in the previous sections. How To Write Posters. The course of events is easier to observe than in most other areas. Year. Many of the facts take a quantitative form, and the data are well recorded and well preserved. How To Posters. The opportunity for testing occurs because my interpretation of financial markets directly contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which has been the prevailing paradigm. The efficient market hypothesis claims that markets tend toward equilibrium and future roommate that deviations occur in a random fashion and can be attributed to exogenous shocks. It is then a testable proposition whether the efficient market hypothesis or my theory of reflexivity is posters, better at chapters paper explaining and write posters predicting events. I contend that my theory of reflexivity is superior, even in its current rudimentary stage of development for explaining and predicting financial markets in + ebook, general, and historical events like the financial crisis of 2007–2008 and how to write the subsequent euro crisis in particular. My conceptual framework. Let me state the three key concepts of my approach, fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle as they apply to of a the financial markets.
First, fallibility. Write Posters. Market prices of financial assets do not accurately reflect their fundamental value because they do not even aim to do so. To My Future Roommate. Prices reflect market participants’ expectations of future market prices. Moreover, market participants are subject to fallibility; consequently, their expectations about the discounted present value of how to, future earnings flows are likely to diverge from reality. The divergence may range from the negligible to the significant. Vodafone. This is in direct contradiction of the efficient market hypothesis, which does not admit fallibility. Second, reflexivity. How To Posters. Instead of playing a purely passive role in reflecting an underlying reality, financial markets also have an active role: they can affect the future earnings flows they are supposed to reflect.
That is the point that behavioral economists have missed. Behavioral economics focuses on only half of the reflexive process: cognitive fallibility leading to the mispricing of assets; they do not concern themselves with the effects that mispricing can have on the fundamentals. There are various pathways by clinton's presidency, which the mispricing of financial assets can affect the so-called fundamentals. How To Write. The most widely used are those that involve the essay are the, use of leverage – both debt and equity leveraging. For instance, companies can improve their earnings per-share by issuing shares at inflated prices – at least for a while. Markets may give the impression that they are always right, but the mechanism at work is very different from that implied by the prevailing paradigm. Third, the human uncertainty principle turns what economic theory treats as timeless generalizations into a time-bound historical process.
If agents act on posters the basis of their perfect understanding, equilibrium is far from a universally and timelessly prevailing condition of financial markets. Markets may just as easily tend away from a putative equilibrium as toward it. Instead of universally and timelessly prevailing, equilibrium becomes an are the, extreme condition in which subjective market expectations correspond to objective reality. Theoretically such a correspondence could be brought about by either the cognitive or the manipulative function by itself – either perceptions can change to match reality or perceptions can lead to actions which change reality to match perceptions. How To Write Posters. But in essays, practice such a correspondence is posters, more likely to be the product of a reflexive interaction between the two functions.
Whereas economics views equilibrium as the write an essay year, normal, indeed necessary state of affairs, I view such periods of posters, stability as exceptional. Essay On Parents Best Teachers. Rather I focus on the reflexive feedback loops that characterize financial markets and cause them to be changing over time. Negative versus positive feedback loops. Reflexive feedback loops can be either negative or positive. Negative feedback brings the participants’ views and the actual situation closer together; positive feedback drives them further apart. In other words, a negative feedback process is self-correcting. It can go on forever and write posters if there are no significant changes in clinton's, external reality, it may eventually lead to an equilibrium in write, which the participants’ views come to vodafone case study correspond to write posters the actual state of affairs. That is what rational expectations theory expects to happen in complete essays of montaigne + ebook, financial markets. It postulates that there is a single correct set of expectations that people’s views will converge around and deviations are random – there are no systematic errors between participants’ forecasts and how to posters what comes to pass.
That postulate has no resemblance to reality, but it is a core tenet of economics as it is currently taught in universities and even used in the models of central banks. In practice, market participants’ expectations diverge from reality to a greater or lesser extent and essay on parents are the teachers their errors may be correlated and significantly biased. That is the write posters, generic cause of price distortions. Essay Clinton's Presidency. So equilibrium, which is the how to, central case in mainstream economic theory, turns out to be an extreme case of negative feedback, alimiting case in my conceptual framework. Since equilibrium is so extreme that it is unlikely to prevail in reality, I prefer to speak of near-equilibrium conditions. By contrast, a positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in essay on bill, the actual state of affairs, because positive feedback reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium, or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium situations. There are myriad feedback loops at work in posters, financial markets at any point of time. Vodafone Case. Some of them are positive, others negative.
As long as they are more or less in balance they cancel out each other and market fluctuations do not have a definite direction. How To Write Posters. I compare these swings to the waves sloshing around in a swimming pool as opposed to the tides and currents that may prevail when positive feedbacks preponderate. Since positive feedbacks are self-reinforcing occasionally they may become so big that they overshadow all other happenings in the market. Negative feedback loops tend to be more ubiquitous but positive feedback loops are more interesting because they can cause big moves both in market prices and in the underlying fundamentals. A positive feedback process that runs its full course is initially self-reinforcing in one direction, but eventually it is liable to reach a climax or reversal point, after which it becomes self-reinforcing in best, the opposite direction. But positive feedback processes do not necessarily run their full course; they may be aborted at any time by write, negative feedback. Building on on bill presidency these ideas, I have developed a theory about boom–bust processes, or bubbles (Soros, 1987, 2008). Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend (see Figure 4).
A boom–bust process is set in motion when a trend and a misconception positively reinforce each other. The process is write, liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, giving rise to climaxes which may or may not turn out to be genuine. If a trend is strong enough to survive the test, both the trend and the misconception will be further reinforced. Eventually, market expectations become so far removed from reality that people are forced to recognize that a misconception is involved. A twilight period ensues during which doubts grow and more people lose faith, but the essay on bill presidency, prevailing trend is how to write, sustained by inertia. As Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup said during the twilight of the super bubble: ‘As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.’ Eventually, a point is reached when the vodafone in india, trend is reversed, it then becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite direction. Boom–bust processes tend to be asymmetrical: booms are slow to develop and take a long time to become unsustainable, busts tend to be more abrupt, due to write posters forced liquidation of unsustainable positions and the asymmetries introduced by chapters of a thesis, leverage. Figure 4 A typical market boom–bust.
In the initial stage (AB), a new positive earning trend is how to write, not yet recognized. Then comes a period of acceleration (BC) when the trend is chapters thesis paper, recognized and reinforced by expectations. A period of testing may intervene when either earnings or expectations waiver (CD). How To Write. If the positive trend and bias survive the testing, both emerge stronger. Conviction develops and is no longer shaken by how to write an essay year, a setback in earnings (DE). The gap between expectations and reality becomes wider (EF) until the moment of truth arrives when reality can no longer sustain the exaggerated expectations and the bias is recognized as such (F).
A twilight period ensues when people continue to play the game although they no longer believe in it (FG). Eventually a crossover point (G) is reached when the posters, trend turns down and prices lose their last prop. This leads to a catastrophic downward acceleration (GH) commonly known as the crash. The pessimism becomes over done, earnings stabilize, and prices recover somewhat (HI). The simplest case is a real estate boom.
The trend that precipitates it is easy credit; the misconception is that the value of the collateral is independent of the availability of credit. As a matter of fact, the relationship is reflexive. When credit becomes cheaper and more easily available, activity picks up and real estate values rise. There are fewer defaults, credit performance improves, and lending standards are relaxed. So, at the height of the boom, the amount of future roommate essay, credit involved is at its maximum and a reversal precipitates forced liquidation, depressing real estate values. How To Write. Amazingly, the misconception continues to recur in various guises. Other bubbles are based on different misconceptions. For instance, the international banking crisis of 1982 revolved around sovereign debt in which case no collateral was involved. The creditworthiness of the to my future, sovereign borrowers was measured by various debt ratios, such as debt to GDP or debt service to exports. How To Posters. These ratios were considered objective criteria, but in fact they were reflexive. Of A Thesis Paper. When the recycling of how to, petro-dollars in to my, the 1970s increased the flow of credit to countries like Brazil, their debt ratios improved, which encouraged further inflows and started a bubble.
In 1980, Paul Volcker raised interest rates in the USA to arrest inflation and the sovereign debt bubble burst in 1982. Bubbles are not the only form in which reflexivity manifests itself. Write. They are just the most dramatic and the most directly contradictory to how to write year 9 the efficient market hypothesis, so they do deserve special attention. But reflexivity can take many other forms. How To. In currency markets, for thesis paper instance, the upside and downside are symmetrical so that there is no sign of an asymmetry between boom and bust. But there is how to posters, no sign of equilibrium, either. Freely floating exchange rates tend to move in large, multi-year waves.
Markets versus regulators. One of the most important and interesting reflexive interactions takes place between the financial authorities and the financial markets. Because markets do not tend toward equilibrium, they are prone to produce periodic crises. Financial crises lead to regulatory reforms. That is how central banking and roommate essay the regulation of financial markets have evolved. Financial authorities and market participants alike act on the basis of imperfect understanding, which makes the interaction between them reflexive. While bubbles occur only how to intermittently, the interplay between authorities and markets is an ongoing process. Misunderstandings by either side usually stay within reasonable bounds because market reactions provide useful feedback to the authorities, allowing them to correct their mistakes. But occasionally the mistakes prove to be self-validating, setting in motion vicious or virtuous circles. Such feedback loops resemble bubbles in chapters of a paper, the sense that they are initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating.
Indeed, the how to write posters, intervention of the authorities to on bill clinton's deal with periodic financial crises played a crucial role in the development of a ‘super-bubble’ that burst in 2007–2008 (Soros,2008, 2009). The interplay between markets and write regulators is also at the heart of the euro crisis. The euro crisis. I have been following the euro crisis closely ever since its inception. I have written numerous articles that have been collected in chapters of a paper, a book (Soros, 2012). It would be impossible to summarize all my arguments for this essay; therefore, I shall focus only on the reflexive interaction between markets and authorities. Posters. Both acted on the basis of their imperfect understanding. The design of the common currency had many flaws. Thesis. Some of them were known at the time the euro was introduced.
Everybody, for write example, knew that it was an incomplete currency; it had a central bank, but it did not have a common treasury. The crash of 2008, however, revealed many other deficiencies. In retrospect, the most important was that by transferring the right to print to money to an independent central bank, member countries ran the risk of default on their government bonds. In a developed country with its own currency, the on parents are the teachers, risk of default is absent because it can always print money. But by ceding or transferring that right to an independent central bank, which no member state actually controls, the member states put themselves in the position of third-world countries that borrow in a foreign currency. This fact was not recognized either by the markets or by the authorities prior to the crash of 2008, testifying to their fallibility. When the euro was introduced, the how to posters, authorities actually declared government bonds to be riskless. Essays Of Montaigne. Commercial banks were not required to set aside any capital reserves against their holdings of government bonds. The European Central Bank (ECB) accepted all government bonds on equal terms at write the discount window. This set up a perverse incentive for future roommate essay commercial banks to buy the debt of the weaker governments in order to earn what eventually became just a few basis points, because interest rates on government bonds converged to write posters practically zero. This convergence in interest rates caused divergences in economic performance.
The weaker countries enjoyed real estate and vodafone case consumption booms, while Germany, which was dealing with the burden of reunification, had to adopt fiscal austerity and posters structural reforms. After the Lehman bankruptcy European finance ministers declared that no other systemically important financial institution would be allowed to fail; Chancellor Merkel then insisted that the obligation should fall on each country individually, not on essay clinton's presidency the European Union or the Eurozone collectively. How To. That was the onset of the + ebook, euro crisis. It took markets more than a year to react to it. How To Write Posters. Only when Greece revealed a much larger than expected fiscal deficit did markets realize that Greece may actually default on its debt – and they raised risk premiums with a vengeance not only on Greek bonds but also on the bonds of all the heavily indebted member countries. A Greek default would have created a worse banking crisis than the Lehman bankruptcy. The authorities put together a number of rescue packages but they always did too little too late; so conditions in Greece continued to deteriorate.
This set a pattern for the other heavily indebted countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, and vodafone case study Ireland as well. While the actions of the ECB have calmed the markets, the crisis is still far from write, resolved. Rather than an association of equals, the Eurozone became divided into two classes: creditors and debtors. In a financial crisis, the creditors call the shots. The policies they are imposing perpetuate the essay on parents are the, division because the debtors have to how to pay risk premiums, not only on government bonds but also on bank credit. The additional cost of thesis paper, credit, which is a recurrent burden, makes it practically impossible for the heavily indebted countries to regain competitiveness.
This is not the result of an evil plot. How To Posters. It was caused by year, a lack of understanding of an extremely complicated reality. In my articles, I put forward a series of practical proposals that could have worked at the time but became inadequate soon thereafter. Conversely, had the write, authorities adopted earlier some measures that they were willing to adopt later, they could have arrested the downtrend and then reversed it by adopting further measures. As it is, they have managed to calm the crisis, but failed to reverse the trend. This analysis emphasizes the vital role that fallibility plays in shaping the how to write year, course of history: there would have been no crisis without it. It also shows that in far-from-equilibrium conditions the normal rules do not apply. One of the reasons why the crisis persists is that the Eurozone is governed by treaties that were designed for near-equilibrium conditions. Obviously economists relying on how to write posters the prevailing paradigm could not have reached this conclusion. Both the how to an essay year 9, super-bubble and the euro crisis are examples of far-from-equilibrium situations.
A core difference between my approach and mainstream economics is that my framework can accommodate and explain such phenomena. Instead of declaring equilibrium as the outcome, I distinguish between near-equilibrium conditions that are characterized by random fluctuations and write posters far-from-equilibrium situations that produce initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating trends. Near-equilibrium yields humdrum, everyday events that are repetitive and lend themselves to statistical generalizations. In contrast, far-from-equilibrium conditions give rise to unique, historic events in which outcomes are uncertain but have the capacity to disrupt the statistical generalizations based on everyday events. Rules that can usefully guide decisions in near-equilibrium conditions can be misleading in of a thesis paper, far-from-equilibrium situations. The financial crisis of 2007–2008 is a case in point. All the risk management tools and synthetic financial products that were based on the assumption that price deviations from a putative equilibrium occur in a random fashion broke down, and those who relied on mathematical models that had served them well in near-equilibrium conditions got badly hurt. In the write, 1960s, the mathematician Mandelbrot (1963) discovered that the price movements of financial assets sometimes exhibit ‘fat tails’ – more extreme events than a normal Gaussian distribution would predict. This finding has since been confirmed by much research. I believe that my conceptual framework can at least partially explain the fat tail phenomenon. Reality feeds the participants so much information that they need to introduce dichotomies and other simplifying devices to make some sense of it.
The simplest way to introduce order is binary division; hence, the tendency to best use dichotomies. When markets switch from one side of a dichotomy to another the transition can be quite violent. The tipping point is difficult to predict but it is associated with a sharp increase in how to posters, volatility, which manifests itself in fat tails. Toward a new paradigm. One of the most powerful concepts for purposes of simplification is the concept of change. Of Montaigne. In my first philosophical essay (Soros, 1962, 2006) written under the influence of Karl Popper, I used the concept of how to write posters, change to build models of essay on parents are the best teachers, social systems and reflexively connect them to modes of write, thinking. I linked organic society with the traditional mode of thinking, open society with the critical mode, and closed society with the dogmatic mode. It can be seen that my conceptual framework extends to paper a much broader area than that covered by how to, economic theory. But financial markets provide the how to write an essay 9, best laboratory for posters studying far-from-equilibrium situations at work because they manifest themselves in essays + ebook, fat tails that can be clearly observed in how to write posters, the data.
They can be studied in other fields as well, but only in the form of a historical narrative, as I have done in my analysis of the euro crisis, which weaves together politics with financial economics. Reflexivity has been largely neglected until recently because it connects different fields studied by different disciplines. The same applies to my entire conceptual framework: it connects ideas with reality. Reality has been broken up into narrow fields of specialization. This has brought great benefits but it has a major drawback: philosophy that deals with reality as a whole has fallen out of favor. It needs to be rehabilitated.
Mainstream economics tried to seal itself off from reality by relying on postulates that turned out to be far removed from reality. The financial crisis of 2007/2008 and subsequent events exposed the weakness of essays, this approach. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was also the bankruptcy of the prevailing paradigm. There is urgent need for a new one. This essay has shown that my interpretation of financial markets – based on my theory of reflexivity – is radically different from orthodox economics based on efficient markets and rational expectations. Strictly speaking, both interpretations are pseudo-scientific by Popper’s standards.
That is write, why I called my first book ‘The Alchemy of Finance’. And that is why some proponents of the efficient market hypothesis still defend it in the face of all the evidence. Nevertheless, I contend that my interpretation yields better explanations and predictions than the prevailing paradigm. How can I reconcile this claim with my starting contention that the future is inherently uncertain and financial markets are inherently unpredictable? By resorting to Popper’s logic of scientific discovery. As a market participant, I formulate conjectures and essay expose them to refutation. I also assume that other market participants are doing the same thing whether they realize it or not. Their expectations are usefully aggregated in write, market prices.
I can therefore compare my own expectations with prevailing prices. When I see a divergence, I see a profit opportunity. The bigger the divergence, the bigger the complete essays, opportunity. Popper made a similar assertion about scientific hypotheses. Philosophers of science roundly criticized him for this on write posters the grounds that the predictive power of to my essay, scientific theories cannot be quantified. It may not work for scientific theories, but I can testify from personal experience that it does work in the alchemy of financial markets. When the price behavior contradicts my expectations I have to re-examine my hypothesis. Write Posters. If I find myself proven wrong, I take a loss; if I conclude that the on parents best teachers, market is wrong, I increase my bet, always taking into account the risk that I am bound to be wrong some of the time. This works well in markets that are efficient in the sense that transaction costs are minimal; it does not work in private equity investments that are not readily marketable. Posters. My performance record bears this out.
I was successful in markets but not in private equities. My approach can also be useful in formulating policy recommendations as my articles on the euro crisis demonstrate (Soros, 2012). Ever since the Crash of 2008 there has been a widespread recognition, both among economists and the general public, that economic theory has failed. But there is no consensus on the causes and essay presidency the extent of that failure. I have argued that the failure is more profound than generally recognized. It goes back to the foundations of economic theory. Economics tried to model itself on Newtonian physics. It sought to establish universally and timelessly valid laws governing reality. But economics is a social science and there is write posters, a fundamental difference between the natural and on bill presidency social sciences. Social phenomena have thinking participants who cannot base their decisions on perfect knowledge; yet, they cannot avoid making decisions since avoiding them also counts as a decision. They introduce an element of indeterminacy into the course of human events that is absent in the behavior of inanimate objects.
The resulting uncertainty hinders the posters, social sciences in producing laws similar to Newton’s physics. Yet, once we recognize this difference it frees us to essay on parents are the teachers develop new approaches to the study of social phenomena. While they have not yet been fully developed they hold out great promise. The stakes could not be higher. The mistaken theories that allowed the ‘super bubble’ to build, the policy errors that were made in the wake of the posters, crash, and the ongoing mishandling of the complete of montaigne + ebook, euro crisis highlight the human suffering that can result from a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of economic systems. Recognizing the implications of our fallibility will be a great improvement in our understanding. Interpreting the economy as a reflexive system may not prevent future bubbles, crashes, or policy errors. But it may enable deeper insights into economic and socio-political phenomena and help humankind to better manage its affairs in the future. I realize that my approach is still very rudimentary. For most of my life, I developed it in how to write posters, the privacy of my own mind. Only in recent years, did I have the benefit of substantive criticism.
It remains to be seen whether my conceptual framework can develop into a new paradigm. Complete Essays + Ebook. Much depends on whether reflexive feedback loops can be properly modeled. Write Posters. There is an obvious problem: Knightian uncertainty cannot be quantified. But it is possible to identify trends without quantifying them and changes in trends without specifying the time of their occurrence. That is what I have done in my boom–bust model (Figure 4). Vodafone Study. We can also use volatility, which is quantifiable, as a substitute for uncertainty. And there may be other techniques that address these issues such as Imperfect Knowledge Economics (Frydman Goldberg, 2013) or new approaches yet to be invented.
The new paradigm is bound to be very different from the one that failed. How To Posters. It cannot be timeless; it must recognize that some changes are non-recurring while others exhibit statistical regularities. Moreover, economic theory will not be able to seal itself off from of a thesis, other disciplines and from reality. It cannot confine itself to studying the allocation of limited means among unlimited alternative ends; it will have to take into account the impact the allocation may have on prevailing values and methods of production. Obviously, I shall not be able to develop my ideas on my own. Posters. That is of a paper, why I am so pleased that the Journal of Economic Methodology is publishing this special issue.
1.Postscript: When I wrote this article I was troubled by how to posters, drawing an overly sharp distinction between the natural and social sciences. Are The Best. Beinhocker’s (2013) article in this symposium and a workshop at the Central European University on 8 October 2013 led me to modify my views on separating the two. I still think that the methodological convention I proposed is needed in the near term in how to posters, order to break the stranglehold of rational choice theory, but I realize it could do more harm than good in the long term. On Parents Are The Teachers. As I stated above, there is a spectrum between physical and social sciences. Beinhocker is right in arguing that we should study the spectrum rather than attributing reflexivity exclusively to the domain of the social sciences. There are many similarities between human and non-human complex systems, which could be obfuscated by the proposed convention. Instead of write, denying the unity of science we ought to redefine scientific method so that it is not confined to Popper’s model. · 1. Beinhocker, E. D. (2013). Reflexivity, complexity and the nature of to my future essay, social science.
Journal of Economic Methodology, 20, 330–342. [Taylor Francis Online] · 2. Frydman, R., Goldberg, M. D. (2013). The imperfect knowledge imperative in macroeconomics and finance theory. How To Write Posters. In R.Frydman E. S.Phelps (Eds.), Rethinking expectations: The way forward for macroeconomics (pp. 130–168). Of Montaigne + Ebook. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, Chapter 4. · 3. Keynes, J. M. (1936).
The general theory of employment, interest, and posters money. Essay Are The Teachers. New York, NY: Harcourt Brace. · 4. Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin. · 5. How To Write. Mandelbrot, B. (1963). The variation of certain speculative prices. Essay On Parents Best Teachers. Journal of Business, 36, 394–419. [CrossRef] · 6. Merton, R. Write. K. (1949). Social theory and social structure. New York, NY: Free Press.
· 7. Popper, K. (1935/1959). Logik der Forschung. Vienna. First English edition (1959) The logic of scientific discovery. Essays. London: HutchinsonVerlag von Julius Springer. [CrossRef] · 8. Popper, K. Write Posters. (1944). The poverty of historicism, II. A criticism of historicist methods. Chapters Thesis. Economica, 43, 119–137.[CrossRef] · 9. Popper, K. (1945). Write Posters. The open society and essay are the its enemies.
London: Routledge. · 10. How To Write Posters. Popper, K. Essay Best. (1957). The poverty of historicism. London: Routledge. · 11. Robbins, L. (1932). An essay on the nature and significance of economic science.
London: MacMillan. · 12. Soros, G. (1962). Burden of consciousness. (unpublished; revised version included in Soros (2006)). · 13. Soros, G. (1987). The alchemy of how to write posters, finance.
Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Sons. · 14. Soros, G. (1998). The crisis of global capitalism: Open society endangered. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 15. Soros, G. (2000). Open society: Reforming global capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 16.
Soros, G. (2006). How To Write An Essay 9. The age of fallibility: Consequences of the war on write posters terror. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 17. Soros, G. (2008). The new paradigm for financial markets the credit crisis and case in india what it means. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 18. Soros, G. Write. (2009).
The crash of 2008 and what it means: The new paradigm for financial markets. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 19. Soros, G. (2010). The Soros lectures at chapters thesis the Central European University. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 20. Soros, G. (2012).
Financial turmoil in the United States and Europe: Essays. New York, NY: Public Affairs.
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The Ethical Implications of how to Parents Writing About Their Kids. When Working From Home Doesn’t Work. Tips for spotting a problematic new genre: parental overshare. Shortly after the to my future roommate, tragedy in Newtown, Liza Long, an write, author, musician, and erstwhile classicist, published a viral essay with the provocative title, I am Adam Lanza's Mother, comparing her own mentally-ill teen son to the alleged Newtown killer, and herself to Lanza's first victim: A few weeks ago, Michael pulled a knife and threatened to kill me and then himself after I asked him to return his overdue library books, Long wrote, concluding from this and an essay other troubling incidents that her son is likely on his way to opening fire in how to write posters, a fast food restaurant. A mall. A kindergarten classroom. Long's essay was only the essay on bill clinton's presidency, most outlandish version of a popular genre: parental overshare. In July, for example, on a New York Times opinion blog, Beth Boyle Machlan, at work on a memoir about how to write posters, mothering and mental illness, described her daughter's O.C.D. Despite the lack of violence, Machlan's essay may be more disturbing than Long's—we get an account of the how to 9, girl's therapy session, and hear Machlan calling her daughter bunny and sweetie. Private scenes the reader should not have had access to. But with the response to Long's piece, serious public opposition to parents spilling their own children's secrets began to emerge.
Another writer, Sarah Kendzior, took issue with Long's discretion: Over the past few days, we have had a number of calls for 'national conversations'—about guns, about mental health, about how to, safety. We need to have a national conversation about the online privacy of children. Mothers should protect their children, not exploit them for media attention. The first go at this national conversation seemed ill-fated.
Kendzior had also made weaker critiques of Long's parenting, diverting attention from the privacy angle. Essay On Bill Clinton's Presidency. Tensions high, the two made peace so as to avoid a mommy war. Kendzior, though, did not back down, later arguing, The greatest threat to children's privacy online does not come from corporations. How To. It comes from parents. Meanwhile, on the New York Times 's parenting blog, Jillian Keenan responded indirectly to Long, thanking her own mother for not publicizing an adolescent outburst. Of Montaigne. Keenan's plea could not have been more sensible: Parents should be the first line of defense to how to write posters, protect their children's privacy, but sometimes they aren't, she wrote, blaming the media for publishing gratuitous material that could damage a child's long-term personal or professional prospects. Yet Keenan's hook was that she herself had once drawn a knife on her mother. She also referred to having gotten her partner's permission to mention him in an article (also in the Times ) about her spanking fetish. For some commenters, this diminished her credibility, obscuring her argument.
Still, anyone looking to question the ethics of parental overshare faces a tough audience. The ubiquity of confessional writing has spilled over into confessions that implicate not so much the author as the author's still-underage offspring. Readers are meant to celebrate confessional parenting-writing for its courage, perhaps also because it is a rare creative (sometimes lucrative) outlet for future roommate women who identify primarily as mothers. Yet these parents' courage involves telling stories not theirs to tell. Confessional writing is about risk. An author telling of her own troubles risks her own reputation and relationships. But an author doing the same about how to posters, her kid risks primarily his, not hers. Parental overshare, as I define it, does not refer to parents discussing their kids with friends and family. Private or anonymous communication doesn't count, even if in this day and vodafone case age, everything could theoretically reach a mass audience. Nor does fiction. Two criteria must be present: First, the posters, children need to be identifiable.
That does not necessarily mean full names. The author's full name is plenty, even if the children have a different (i.e. their father's) last name. Next, there needs to chapters, be ambition to reach a mass audience. Parental overshare does not always deal with tragic circumstances. It ranges from family secrets to lighthearted anecdotes. There are girls whose fashionable mothers want them to how to write, lose weight. Essay On Bill Clinton's Presidency. Boys who need professional help with their homework, or who will never go to Harvard like their old man. Children with messy bedrooms—literal dirty laundry. Hanna Rosin distinguishes between writing like Long's, which she considers libelous, and mommy bloggers embarrassing their children.
One might also view them as equally problematic, but for different reasons. While serious revelations pose a greater threat to a child's reputation, humiliating stories may be more likely to destroy a parent-child relationship. A child might sympathize with writing about his illness, but not about that time when he was three and wet the bed. And a story of everyday parenting challenges could still reflect poorly on a child down the line. Between two equivalent candidates, who would hire the one who once begged for $600 jeans?
Parental overshare's most obvious flaw is its potential to humiliate. How To Write. But what if the kid's OK with it? Some authors, Long included, reassure us that their children approve. Yet children are not in a position to veto their guardians' livelihood. Nor do they understand what it means for on parents are the best teachers information to how to posters, be private. It's generally understood that what kids put online about themselves can hurt them later. How can a child consent to future, a memoir?
The reader assumes that the parent will do what's best for her child. While the parent may set out to do this, using their own children in the service of a larger argument clouds their ability to write posters, self-censor. And with confession can come vanity. Indeed, it often seems as though what motivates parental overshare isn't so much the potential for essay on parents best a post to go viral as the parenting accolades from strangers. An interviewer said to memoirist Amy Chua, Perhaps [. ] the write, crucial thing is how to an essay year 9 not how pushy you are as a parent, but how engaged, to which Chua replied, 'I'm so glad you say that!' Reviews of John Schwartz's memoir insist upon how understanding, empathetic, caring, and, well, perfect Schwartz and his wife clearly are. Online commenters and reviewers often ignore that parents may misjudge their own parenting. More upsettingly, they do not question the acceptability of parents mining kids' lives for material. Perhaps they assume these kids are if anything privileged to have such attentive (and often well-connected) parents. Where, then, should a parent-writer draw the line? The simplest way is to posters, ask if a given anecdote would be appropriate if its subject were not your child. Would you publish that essay about your colleague or sibling?
About a friend's kid? If you consider the power dynamics between parent and child; the childhood secrets only a parent can know; and the trust children have in their parents, you see why parental overshare, however well-intentioned, is unethical. The Harrowing Personal Stories of to my future essay Syrian Refugees, in Their Own Words. A documentary film crew travels to Greece to capture the perspectives of new arrivals. A small group of programmers wants to how to posters, change how we code—before catastrophe strikes. T here were six hours during the night of April 10, 2014, when the entire population of Washington State had no 911 service. Write Year 9. People who called for help got a busy signal. Posters. One Seattle woman dialed 911 at least 37 times while a stranger was trying to break into her house. Clinton's. When he finally crawled into her living room through a window, she picked up a kitchen knife. Posters. The man fled.
The 911 outage, at on parents best, the time the largest ever reported, was traced to how to write posters, software running on a server in Englewood, Colorado. Operated by a systems provider named Intrado, the server kept a running counter of thesis how many calls it had routed to 911 dispatchers around the country. Intrado programmers had set a threshold for how high the write posters, counter could go. They picked a number in the millions. The world’s most powerful information gatekeepers neglected their duties in Las Vegas. Again.
In the how to an essay, crucial early hours after the Las Vegas mass shooting, it happened again: Hoaxes, completely unverified rumors, failed witch hunts, and blatant falsehoods spread across the internet. But they did not do so by themselves: They used the write posters, infrastructure that Google and Facebook and roommate essay YouTube have built to achieve wide distribution. These companies are the most powerful information gatekeepers that the world has ever known, and yet they refuse to take responsibility for their active role in damaging the quality of how to write posters information reaching the public. BuzzFeed ’s Ryan Broderick found that Google’s “top stories” results surfaced 4chan forum posts about a man that right-wing amateur sleuths had incorrectly identified as the Las Vegas shooter. Two Dark American Truths From Las Vegas. On the vodafone study, certainty of more shootings. Beyond the scores of people who have been killed and the hundreds who have been wounded in Las Vegas today, thousands of other people, though not visibly or directly injured, have had their lives changed forever. How To. Children and on bill clinton's parents. Husbands and wives. Brothers and sisters. How To Write. Something is instantly and vodafone study permanently gone from their lives.
Co-workers and how to posters friends. Members of chapters thesis paper churches or sports leagues or the PTA. Customers and clients and students. Neighbors and casual acquaintances at the coffee shop or the how to write, bar. The rest of of a their days will be different and shadowed because of this massacre. “Children, I want to explain why Coach Franklin won’t be leading our soccer team any more. Something bad happened, and . ” When Working From Home Doesn’t Work. IBM pioneered telecommuting. How To. Now it wants people back in the office. I n 1979, IBM was putting its stamp on the American landscape. For 20 years, it had been hiring the greats of modernism to erect buildings where scientists and salespeople could work shoulder-to-shoulder commanding the burgeoning computer industry.
But that year, one of its new facilities—the Santa Teresa Laboratory, in Silicon Valley—tried an experiment. To ease a logjam at the office mainframe, it installed boxy, green-screened terminals in the homes of five employees, allowing them to thesis, work from home. The idea of telecommuting was still a novelty. But this little solution seemed effective. By 1983, about 2,000 IBMers were working remotely. Write Posters. The corporation eventually realized that it could save millions by selling its signature buildings and institutionalizing distance work; the number of remote workers ballooned. In 2009, an IBM report boasted that “40 percent of IBM’s some 386,000 employees in 173 countries have no office at all.” More than 58 million square feet of chapters of a office space had been unloaded, at a gain of nearly $2 billion.
IBM, moreover, wanted to help other corporations reap the same officeless efficiencies through its consulting services. Leading by example was good marketing. 'It Feels Like Someone Has Opened a Window Into Hell' Faced with the horror of write posters Las Vegas, late-night’s comedians showed their despair. “If comedy is tragedy plus time,” Jon Stewart said in 2014, responding to essays of montaigne, the death of Eric Garner, “I need more fucking time.” That was three years ago, and Stewart is long gone, but his legacy is the stable of comedians on late-night television who use the how to, news not just to entertain, but to advocate. It’s gotten harder.
Increasingly, over the last three years, Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, Seth Meyers, James Corden, Conan O’Brien, even Jimmy Fallon, even, yes, Jimmy Kimmel, have been handed an unflinching cavalcade of horrors to turn into humor. An Essay 9. They’ve experimented with sincerity, with sadness, with satire, with moral outrage, with faith, and how to most recently—in Kimmel’s case—with fury. The tempestuous presidency of Donald Trump has provided them with plenty to laugh at. Essay Best. And plenty to how to, despair. A New History of the First Peoples in the Americas. The miracle of how to write year modern genetics has revolutionized the story anthropologists tell about how humans spread out across the Earth. Europeans arriving in the New World met people all the way from the frozen north to how to posters, the frozen south. Essays + Ebook. All had rich and write posters mature cultures and established languages.
The Skraeling were probably a people we now call Thule, who were the ancestors of the Inuit in Greenland and Canada and the In?upiat in Alaska. Complete + Ebook. The Tai?no were a people spread across multiple chiefdoms around the Caribbean and Florida. Based on cultural and language similarities, we think that they had probably separated from earlier populations from South American lands, now Guyana and how to write Trinidad. The Spanish brought no women with them in vodafone study, 1492, and raped the Tai?no women, resulting in posters, the first generation of “mestizo”—mixed ancestry people. This Is What a Real Middle-Class Tax Cut Would Look Like. Getting money into the pockets of ordinary Americans is easy.
Why can’t the White House do it? If one takes the White House’s word for an essay it, tax reform is all about a single goal—helping the write, middle class, not the rich. Gary Cohn, the White House’s chief economic adviser, says the president’s tax cut is “purely aimed at middle-class families.” Steve Mnuchin, the are the teachers, Treasury secretary, promised Congress that tax reform wouldn’t benefit the write posters, rich. House Speaker Paul Ryan says the plan’s “entire purpose” is to vodafone case study in india, lower middle-class taxes. But the promises don’t fit the plan. As my colleague Annie Lowrey has written, the still-unfinished GOP policy would deliver half of write its benefits to the top 1 percent, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center (TPC). Meanwhile, America’s poorest families would get a minuscule tax benefit—less than 1 percent growth in chapters of a, after-tax income. One in write, five Americans making the median household income would actually see a tax hike, particularly if they live in high-tax states and have lots of kids. (When Senator Rand Paul discovered this fact, he sharply criticized the plan on Twitter.)
The foundation of Donald Trump’s presidency is the negation of write an essay Barack Obama’s legacy. It is insufficient to state the obvious of Donald Trump: that he is how to write posters a white man who would not be president were it not for complete essays of montaigne this fact. With one immediate exception, Trump’s predecessors made their way to high office through the passive power of whiteness—that bloody heirloom which cannot ensure mastery of all events but can conjure a tailwind for how to write most of essays of montaigne them. Land theft and human plunder cleared the grounds for Trump’s forefathers and barred others from it. Once upon the field, these men became soldiers, statesmen, and scholars; held court in Paris; presided at Princeton; advanced into write, the Wilderness and on parents then into the White House.
Their individual triumphs made this exclusive party seem above America’s founding sins, and it was forgotten that the former was in fact bound to the latter, that all their victories had transpired on cleared grounds. Write Posters. No such elegant detachment can be attributed to Donald Trump—a president who, more than any other, has made the awful inheritance explicit. If guns aren’t a problem, why does the U.S. Chapters Thesis Paper. have so many more shootings than any other country? For all its use, “thoughts and prayers” doesn’t appear to have produced a quantifiable reduction in the rates of gun violence. Over years of mass murders in the United States, the aphorism has become a statement of write posters unwillingness to address causes or prevention—the justification being that during a period of chapters of a thesis paper mourning, no substantive remarks should be made. On Monday, after the country’s 273rd mass shooting of the year, President Trump tweeted the posters, thesaurus version: “warmest condolences and sympathies.” Amid an unparalleled epidemic of gun violence—the murderer of some 58 people was reportedly armed with 19 rifles and hundreds of chapters of a thesis paper rounds of ammunition—words ripped from a greeting card in a hospital gift shop felt pointedly avoidant.
Trump’s speech Monday morning underscored this evasiveness, as he called the mass murder in Las Vegas “evil.” He used the term four times in just 572 words. How To Posters. He did not mention firearms or psychosis or domestic terrorism, but blamed only “pure evil.” The Gun Legislation With the Best Chance of Passing Congress. Advocates for tighter laws renewed their push after the Las Vegas shooting. But any bills that pass under Republican control are likely to expand gun rights, not restrict them. The federal legislation likeliest to advance in Congress following the deadliest mass shooting in how to year, U.S. history is how to write not a measure strengthening background checks, banning the essay on bill, sale of write assault weapons, or otherwise restricting access to firearms. Instead, the essay on parents are the best teachers, proposals that stand the best chance of how to write posters passing are ones that would make it easier for gun owners to buy silencers for their weapons, loosen restrictions on the sale of vodafone armor-piercing bullets, and force states with tight gun-control laws to recognize the rights of how to write residents from states with lighter regulation. Such is the political reality nearly a year after a presidential election that extinguished the hopes of future roommate gun-control advocates for even modest action by Congress and gave full control of the federal government to Republicans who support the how to posters, expansion of gun rights.
Late Sunday night, a 64-year-old gunman killed at least 58 people and injured hundreds more by raking concertgoers on of a thesis, the Las Vegas Strip. In the hours afterward, groups like Everytown for posters Gun Safety and the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence renewed their calls for Congress to enact a universal background-check law and other measures proposed by write year 9 former President Barack Obama and endorsed during last year’s campaign by Hillary Clinton. But their more immediate priority now is a rearguard action to keep federal gun laws where they are. What If Everyone Ate Beans Instead of how to posters Beef? What can an of a thesis, individual do about climate change? The easiest answer: make this one dietary switch.
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100 Cause and how to posters, Effect Essay Topics. VirginiaLynne has been a University English instructor for over 20 years. To My Roommate! She specializes in helping people write essays faster and easier. Examine why something has happened or exists. How To Write Posters! Speculate about what caused the situation. Examine the results of an of montaigne, event, choice, or situation. Trace the start of a situation to a discussion of how to posters, its results. Here's how you can use the following topic ideas to write an chapters of a thesis, essay: Reword the question to fit your assignment. Use a question for write, your topic idea helps keep you organized. Use the question for your title or put it right before your topic sentence. How To Year 9! The answer to the question is your thesis.
Simple! What causes divorce? What is the posters effect of divorce on children? Does the age of the child make a difference? How does the roommate divorce of parents affect the dating and marriage relationships of their children? What is the effect of long distance on relationships? How does living together before being married affect a relationship? What causes men to how to write posters be afraid of commitment?
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What is the effect of growing up in a single-parent household? What is the effect of clinton's, being a twin? What the effect has China's one child had on family relationships? How will the new two child policy change family dynamics? What are the effects on children when their parents are very wealthy or very famous? What causes parents to how to over-schedule their children's activities? (Or what is the paper effect of over-scheduling on how to write posters, the child?) What causes a family to have close relationships?
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What effect does growing up with food insecurity have on how to write, children? What has caused the increase in international adoption in future Western countries? What is the effect on children (or adults) of watching news reports of natural disasters, terrorist strikes, sexual predators, and other fearful situations? What effect do non-profit organizations (perhaps pick a particular one) have on social problems? What is the effect of more baby boomers reaching retirement age? What is the cause of men still out-earning women in wages? What is the effect? What is the effect of religious oppression on a society (perhaps pick a particular country or religion)? What are the causes of poor water quality for many people around the world? What is the effect of people not having shoes to posters wear?
What are the effects of inadequate sanitation on case, a community? What is the cause (or effect) of continued discrimination and racism? What causes people with disabilities to be unable to get jobs? What is the how to write effect on children of growing up in poverty? What has caused the dramatic rise in overweight and obese adults in the U.S. in the last ten years? What will be the effects of this rise in obesity on the healthcare system? What causes the increasing number of children affected by Autistic Spectrum Disorder?
What effect does lack of chapters of a paper, adequate medical insurance have on an individual's health? What causes people to not go to how to write posters the doctor when they have medical problems? What effect does not finishing a prescription medication have on future health? What is the cause (or the effect) of essays + ebook, people not getting their children vaccinated? What causes the spread of HIV/AIDS in Africa? What is the how to posters effect of climate change on infectious medical diseases? What is the effect of globalization on future roommate essay, the spread of disease? What causes some diseases like malaria or HIV to be so difficult to eradicate?
What effect does stress have on health? What effect has cancer research had on stopping cancer deaths? What causes people to get cancer? What causes pancreatic cancer to be so deadly? What has caused cancer to be so difficult to cure? What causes people to seek non-Western medical cures like traditional Chinese medicine or herbal supplements? What is the how to write posters effect of vodafone case study, abortion(s) on a woman's subsequent reproductive health? What effect does birth control have on women? What effect do regular dental check-ups have on oral health?
What causes people to go blind? What causes people to develop allergies? What effect does an increased use of how to write posters, technology have on health? What causes cardiovascular disease? What effect does exercise have on to my future roommate essay, the body?
What causes people to write make healthy living choices? What causes so many healthcare providers to be overweight? What are the social effects of having braces on teeth? What effect does cell phone use have on teenagers? What causes families to buy unlimited cell phone plans?
What are the effects of paper, violent video games on young children or teenagers? What effects does playing video games cause in the brains of elderly people? Does online shopping cause people to spend more money? What effect does social media have on write posters, teen relationships? What are the causes (or effects) of cyber bullying? What causes social media sites to lose popularity? What are the effects of picture and video-based social media sites like Snapchat or Instagram on chapters of a, teenage social interaction? What causes a video game to how to write posters be popular? What effect does moving away from computers and write an essay, towards tablets and smartphones have on how we browse the Internet?
What effect does typing on a screen rather than a keyboard have on how people communicate? What causes Google to how to write posters be the most popular search engine? What are the social effects of everyone on essay on parents are the best, the planet having cell phones? How have smartphones affected business practices? How does standardized testing affect student dropout rates? What effect does being labeled gifted and how to, talented have on students? What effect does being identified as having dyslexia or ADHD have on a child?
What causes students to think school is boring? Does using technology like iPads or smartboards in classrooms cause students to learn better? What is the effect on learning when students do most of their work reading from a computer or tablet rather than paper and books? What are the effects of homeschooling on children? (Or what are the social effects?) What effect have magnet or charter schools had on the educational system in your town or state? How do school programs against bullying affect the actual bullying and fears of students? Do single-sex classrooms cause students to learn better?
What are the positive and negative effects of having school uniforms? What is the effect of having an open high school campus? What is the effect on the education of students when a district has year-round schooling? What causes teachers to burn out? What causes some schools to fail to educate students? What causes American students to lag behind students from other countries on international tests? What effect do fine arts have on students? What effect does a good physical education program have on elementary school students? What effect do longer school days have on a school's educational outcomes?
What effect does parent involvement in schools have on education? What caused the thesis Civil War? What are the continuing effects of how to, slavery on American society? What was the cause of the increasing interest in feminism in the 1960s and 1970s? How were WWII veterans affected by their wartime experiences? What effect did WWII have on the Jewish people? What effect did Christianity have on the Roman empire? What caused the Arab Spring? What are the study effects of the write posters Arab Spring? What effect has the GI Bill, which educates soldiers, had on universities in the U.S.? What was the effect of colonialism on Britain's view of itself?
What were the causes and effects of on parents teachers, colonialism? In the viewpoint of the British, what were the causes and effects of the American Revolution? What causes the drug wars in Colombia? What causes illegal immigration? What are the effects of immigration on how to posters, a country (pick any country)? What is the effect of online sales on businesses (in any country)? What was the essay clinton's presidency effect of the printing press (or other invention) on world history? What are the effects of globalization on the position of women? What are the write effects of American drone attacks on terrorists and civilians? What was the cause of the how to write 9 destruction of the World Trade Center on write posters, 9/11? What is the cause of increased militancy on the part of North Korea? by Josh Wilmoth 0. by Virginia Kearney 8. 100 Easy Illustration Essay Topics. by Virginia Kearney 2. How to Write an on bill presidency, Argument Essay Step by Step. by how to posters, Virginia Kearney 14.
How to Write a Proposal Essay/Paper. by Laura Writes 40. How to essay Write a Reflective Essay with Sample Essays. by Virginia Kearney 21. How To Write Posters! This was great for me because I had to write an essay about essays, some kind of topic with a cause and an effect and this website gave me some really good ideas, Thank You! Virginia Kearney 3 months ago from United States. Sophia--I'm so glad that this helped you. I especially enjoy teaching Chinese students.
I have traveled in China four different times and love your country very much! I am a Chinese student and I think your sharing did help me a lot. Thank you ! this is a great sight for my informational reading and write posters, writing class its good. Hi thanks for chapters paper, helping me. these topics are really good.. i used some of these topics for my projects and got great marks.. i got A+ in all my projects , i am in 7th grade. hubber8893 18 months ago. I think you have presented some great Ideas for hub about relationships. Hugh Johnson 18 months ago. These topics had a BIG impact on my life. Thanks for how to write, your LARGE ammount of tips. On Parents Are The Teachers! These topics really helped me for school. How To Write! Ruby 18 months ago from essay clinton's presidency, United States. How To Write Posters! Creative idea for a hub, what was your case and effect for making it lol.
WOW this is super great to look up stuff for an assignment. Awesome topics thanks a million. Dwight Goliday Jr 23 months ago from essays of montaigne, East Saint Louis. Wow. There are a lot things that cause and effect. Very informative write. Virginia Kearney 23 months ago from United States. Thanks Zakeycia and YoLex.
My students have come up with most of how to write posters, these topics through the years and now this is my most visited article so they must have done a good job! I think it got over 2000 views one day last week! This is paper awesome I wish I'd found this hub before I graduated college lol! Great work! Zakeycia Dickens 23 months ago. I have a cause and effect essay to type for my English class. I was having a hard time coming up with a topic.
Your website and topic suggestions were very helpful. Thank you. Rasheedah Abdul-Hakeem 2 years ago. Thanks. Great topics. James Packard 2 years ago from Columbia, Missouri. What a great hub! Debatable issues (especially political, social, environmental and how to write, behavioural) are great hub topics. They are good to essay are the best write about to do research and clear up one's own viewpoint, but they also get people talking, and how to, also spark very needed discussion.
Thanks for sharing. Liza Treadwell Esq aka Liza Lugo JD 2 years ago from study in india, New York, NY. I love this one, VirginiaLynne. Your hubs are so valuable to students and professional writers. Cause and effect papers are among the most interesting to read. I voted this hub up, useful, and interesting.
I am bookmarking this hub for future reference. I know I'll be using it! Keep up the excellent work here. Marilyn L Davis 2 years ago from Georgia. Good afternoon, Virginia; excellent examples for how to write posters, all categories. Well done. Virginia Kearney 2 years ago from United States.
Virginia Kearney 2 years ago from United States. Hi Gertrude--These two words are ones that are often confused. Affect also means to roommate produce an effect upon as well as to influence. How To Write Posters! I will double check my usage in this Hub just to make sure I haven't made an error. Thanks! Gertrude McFuzz 2 years ago. These are great topics. I just have one comment.
Sometimes you use effect when you should use affect. affect = influence - usually a verb. Chapters Paper! effect= result - usually a noun. effect= cause - not used that often - verb. Shamim Rajabali 3 years ago from Texas. This will come in handy for my English class. How To Posters! Thanks. I Love it very much. rakesh ranjana 3 years ago. Social causes are growing up in lot more ways, knowing it and 9, having a knowledge about it through this site, will help a lot in many ways for people to understand there relationship and social problems. Great hub!
I like your ideas, it is something different innovative. Vote up! Thanks! This is helpful. Vote up. Virginia Kearney 3 years ago from United States.
Sumnerswett--I teach MLA format because that is used by most American colleges in their English departments. However, you are very right to point out that APA and Chicago and other formats are used in different types of courses. Write! I think considering cause and effect is sometimes a bit confusing because it depends on where you view the study in india start of the posters situation. Thesis Paper! Often a cause creates an effect, which causes another situation. Sometimes it is hard to pull them apart. That is why I usually like to call this a speculating about causes essay, because we can't always definitively determine the absolute cause, but we can always speculate and argue for the most important causes, or the most important effects that we see in a situation. Sumner Swett 3 years ago from Owls Head Maine. Okay so cause and effect essays are written in different formats, but let me say in write posters my college profession for the essays to be written were to chapters of a be in APA format, and how to, it is how to write an essay year interesting when researching and writing whether it is from information you have researched or if it free lance. I like to research topics before writing and how to write posters, also note taking is effective. Chapters Thesis Paper! The cause is what causes the situation and the effect is what you have to take into consideration to the cause as we all know it. Write! Kimberly Lake 3 years ago from case, California.
Great topics! Voted up and shared. Virginia Kearney 3 years ago from United States. Leidy--That is how to posters a great essay topic. I think that some of that labeling can be positive and other aspects are negative. It can encourage students to an essay year believe that they are capable, but it can discourage them by making them think that they don't need to work hard, or that if they don't achieve a high grade on everything, they have failed. Seth Tomko 3 years ago from Macon, GA.
A good and diverse collection of how to, topics. I'll be sure to have my students check out some of these for their own essays. Annie Miller 4 years ago from Wichita Falls, Texas. Very interesting and in depth Hub. I am passing this along and how to year 9, saving it, as well!
Chris Achilleos 4 years ago. Great hub Virginia, I have written these types of essays before, and I have found the information that you have presented here to be excellent. Posters! Thank you for sharing. On Parents Best! Voted up and useful! Virginia Kearney 4 years ago from United States. Thanks so much Carol! You are always an encouragement. carol stanley 4 years ago from how to, Arizona. This is something to save when trying to come up with new writing ideas.
Great hub. Year 9! Going to pass this along and of course vote up. Copyright 2017 HubPages Inc. and posters, respective owners. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. HubPages ® is a registered Service Mark of HubPages, Inc.
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camp couselor resume Please carefully review the staff experience material. Whether hunting for a job or a mate, you need to look over several possibilities until you find one that is a great fit. There are over 12,000 summer camps, and this one is write, unlike most of them. Make sure you are a good fit for this camp, and study then we can start the courtship process. #128578; Staff training May 16th — June 10th (longest training in camping) Camp sessions June 11th — August 12th. There is an opportunity for write pre-season work. Start times are variable, but usually begin April 20th with staff training.
Staff often earn a significant amount of money during this time. Of A Thesis Paper. Please contact me if you are interested. Likewise, there is how to write posters, post-season work with family camps and school groups until mid-September. Top 10 reasons to work at Camp Augusta. People who “work” here don’t come for the money. It’s about people – being with them as they play, laugh, learn, struggle, and complete essays of montaigne + ebook grow.
You’ll live with your fellow staff, and write they’ll become your second family. Essays + Ebook. You’ll still make more money than if you worked a normal job elsewhere, however. People can have a job, career, or a calling. We’re looking for folks who have a calling. 2. Interested in how to posters, your personal and professional growth.
a. Skill enhancement often reported: organization, motivating others, problem solving, leadership, emotional intelligence, prioritizing, decision making, risk management, working with groups, behavior management, project management, first aid, CPR, life guarding, teambuilding, responsibility, self-confidence, child development, skill integration, and knowledge of teachers, more games and activities than you thought existed. How To Write Posters. We can also teach you almost any program area, so that you can teach it to children. b. Self-definition / career selection: it is common for staff to say they’ve learned more about themselves in vodafone case study in india, three months than in several years before being here. It is also common for people to how to, change their major/life course after experiencing a summer working at Camp Augusta. Will this job change your life? Probably. Write An Essay. “I think my experience influenced me more than any other job I’ve ever had – had more of an impact than I think any job could have had.” c. We run the longest staff training of any summer camp in the country. Click here to see what a Camp Augusta experience can do for your resume. Fast and write posters deep friendships are made living and teachers working with your teammates. People often keep in contact for years, and our alumni are a testament to friendships kept for decades. Also, more than a few have found their life’s mate working at Camp Augusta.
Nearly one marriage results from every summer. Working so closely with children, it is inevitable that you’ll form bonds. You’ll also be instrumental in the development of children. Help foster self-confidence, independence, life-long recreational skills, safe risk taking, an appreciation for community, a healthy lifestyle, caring, honesty, respect, responsibility, environmental awareness, and how to fun! Your photo album will be full of future, pictures that you will treasure for the rest of your life. You will also make memories for posters others. Complete + Ebook. You will have the how to write opportunity to make friends with people from other countries. Essay On Parents. You’ll leave with 6 photo DVDs full of over how to, 20,000 photographs. The time of your life?
Well, comments such as those are frequently shared at the end of summer staff banquet, in letters received after the summer, and on how to write 9 the community e-mails/groups. 7. Work and posters play in a real community. Work with staff from around the world, and children from on parents best teachers all walks of how to, life. You’ll be with high-quality staff who survived a rigorous selection process and share the same values. Your suggestions are heard, discussed, and often used. Everyone evaluates each other – it isn’t just from the top down. Be yourself and be accepted. People pitch in and share the load.
People belong. There are no edicts at camp, and everyone has equal power. The days are quite long, the activities are often rigorous, and you’ll sleep well, eat well, and get plenty of exercise! We use as much organic food as possible. Camp Augusta has many treasures . Presidency. . Posters. . Essay Clinton's Presidency. a small lake, miles of hiking trails, nature that sometimes gets too close for comfort, the how to very nearby Yuba River, beautiful creek, diverse forests, and the smoke of campfires among 80 acres in the Sierra Nevada, near the Tahoe National Forest. On a clear night, our view of the how to write 9 heavens is simply breathtaking. You’ll find that your work offers both an how to write posters, outlet and study in india a challenge to how to write posters, your creativity. Seeing your fellow staff be crazy and innovative adds fuel to of montaigne, the creative fire that amazes us all every year! . . . that spirit, mind, and body must be nourished richly and simultaneously. We value music and art just as much as sports. We foster respect for how to posters self, for fellow humankind, and for essay on parents are the best the created world of which we are stewards.
We find that the deepest community can arise out how to write posters of the strongest individuality when trust, tolerance, and understanding prevail. Above all, we love to have fun—because smiles and laughter and complete + ebook joyful optimism are the forge of community, relationship, and write posters our own humanity. What did people say when you told them that you were going to work at camp this summer? Did they laugh? Tell you to get a real job?
Ask if you’d seen the movie Meatballs one too many times? If they did support you, do you think that they really understood what you will be doing this summer? If this is how to write year 9, your first summer at camp, you may not be aware what you are really doing here. Write. Even after a summer or two, the of a thesis full scope of how to write posters, what we do may not be totally evident. Whether you really understand it or not though, you have assumed a position of tremendous responsibility. Camp is obviously a place where both you and the campers have fun, but we’re playing for higher stakes here than simply showing the kids a good time. In short, your mission this summer is to be a hero. Not a superhero, because those don’t exist in real life. Real heroes usually aren’t on thesis paper the news or in People magazine. How To. Real heroes don’t care about fame, fortune, or a place in history.
Real heroes are just that—real, ordinary people that have an extraordinary effect on complete essays of montaigne + ebook the lives of other people. The motivation of a hero is nothing more than the simple fact that being a hero is the right thing to do. Children need heroes. However, many people think that children need heroes so that they “know what they want to be when they grow up” or “have someone to look up to.” While those things are important, that’s not the how to posters role of a hero. To be a hero, you must provide a child with one thing—hope. It is your calling to give that child hope wherever they need it.
Maybe they’ve had bad experiences with adults. You show them that adults are not all bad. Maybe people laugh at their dreams. You teach them that it isn’t only ok to dream, but essential. Maybe they come from teachers a broken home. We show them, through our Camp Augusta family, that families can be a positive experience.
Maybe they’ve never really been loved. By caring for how to write posters them in the proper manner while they stay here, you give them the hope that love is more than just an idea, but rather something real they can experience. Heroes allow children to have hope for themselves and their future. Are The Best. Heroes keep the glimmer that we see in the eyes of children from write posters fading as they get older. Just being here doesn’t make you a hero. It does give you the thesis opportunity to become one.
You have a choice to make this summer. There are a lot of distractions here at camp. How To Write Posters. Will you choose to be remembered forever as a hero in the eyes of your children? Camp isn’t for everyone. You have to put your needs behind the children’s and the camp’s, and that isn’t something everyone is able to do, or able to be happy doing. Although people often leave camp with as much money as if they worked another job and paid their own expenses, don’t take this job for the money, because the money isn’t why great staff come here. You could certainly earn more money in many other jobs. In coming here, you must be dedicated, have an open heart and mind, be very patient, and demonstrate an uncommon degree of responsibility in everything you do. Caring, Honesty, Respect, and Responsibility all speak well to your soul. If being with kids 23 hours a day, 6 days a week doesn’t excite you, this probably isn’t the right experience. We expect you to pace yourself, know when you need sleep, and work as consistently at the end of the summer as in the beginning.
We expect you to be a very good big brother or sister while mixing parental responsibility with the to my future essay compassion of a best friend. During the summer, you might get oatmeal dumped on your head, get thrown in how to write posters, the lake, dress up like Mary Poppins or a pirate, comfort a homesick child, put cream on poison oak, work with distressed children, share in contagious laughter, and sleep under the stars every week. As a professional role model for impressionable children, smoking isn’t possible. Smoking is hazardous to essay best, our campers’ health and how to write posters we don’t want a camper to learn that smoking is “cool” from his or her counselor. Being under the of montaigne influence of alcohol or other drugs at camp is prohibited. We have an obligation to how to write, keep our campers safe. People under the influence of alcohol and other drugs make poor decisions and case study in india place campers at risk. Popular is often defined by what you wear, what you know, and what you do. With the most overweight nation of children in how to, the world, record child mental illness, and the sexualization of children and adolescents, we believe that it is difficult for children to be and complete essays of montaigne love their true selves. Brittany Spears, Hillary Duff, Pokemon, Aeropostale, Miley Cyrus, Abercrombie, sitcoms, Teen Magazine, and some hit television dramas have morphed the how to write innocence and potential of are the best teachers, childhood into something quite different. We believe that at camp, children benefit from how to not thinking about what they wear, what it takes to be cool, and growing up too fast.
Children benefit from thinking about write year canoeing, roasting marshmallows, appreciating community, enjoying true friendships, singing, wondering at the stars, and communing with nature. Thus, we leave popular culture at the door. How To Write. We believe that imagination is a precious gift to be protected and not trampled by intense media bombardment. We believe that campers benefit from doing their best work whenever possible, and not engaging in something half-heartedly. Write An Essay. Campers benefit from taking pride in their work. Posters. Beauty in the experience occurs when children strive to have the arrow fly true, the art be artful, the drama well-rehearsed, and the dining decorum playful, yet reverent. We believe that children learn best when they discover truths for themselves. Children thrive when they explore, create, and challenge. Feeding children answers and giving them facts deadens their thirst and roommate hunger for what is true and possible. Play is a tool for learning, and not something given so many minutes during the day.
Through play, children learn social skills, their passions, and their potential. If after reading through our website you’re excited to be at Camp Augusta, then we will be absolutely ecstatic to talk to you! Please give us a ring, drop by, or e-mail. We’ll make the hot chocolate with marshmallows. If you are really interested in knowing more about what your life will be like at Camp Augusta, then check out the other links in this staff section, and the two special links below. They link to Adobe Acrobat PDF files, which give you a deep appreciation for how to write posters life at Camp Augusta. By Phyllis M. Ford, 1970. Somewhere between adolescence and adulthood there occurs in human development an age which is physically and psychologically impossible. It is that unfathomable stage known as the camp counselor, a creature undefined by psychologists, misunderstood by camp directors, worshiped by campers, either admired or doubted by on bill, parents, and how to write posters unheard of by the rest of society. A camp counselor is a rare combination of doctor, lawyer, indian and chief. Vodafone Case Study. She is a competent child psychologist with her sophomore textbook as proof.
She is an underpaid babysitter with neither television nor refrigerator. She is a strict disciplinarian with a twinkle in her eye. She is write, referee, coach, teacher, and advisor. She is an example of essay on parents best, humanity in worn out how to posters tennis shoes, a sweatshirt two sizes too large, and to my roommate essay a hat two sizes too small. Write Posters. She is complete essays + ebook, a humorist in how to posters, a crisis, a doctor in an emergency, and a song leader, entertainer, and play director. She is an idol with her head in a cloud of woodsmoke and her feet in essay, the mud. She is a comforter under a leaky tarp on a canoe overnight, and a pal who just loaned someone her last pair of dry socks. She is a teacher of the outdoors, knee deep in poison ivy.
A counselor dislikes waiting in line, cabin inspection and rainy days. She is posters, fond of sunbathing, exploring, teaching new games, an old car named Mrs. Beasley, and in india days off. She is handy for patching up broken friendships, bloody noses, and write posters torn jeans. She is good at study in india, locating lost towels at the waterfront, fixing stopped up toilets, making friendship bracelets, and how to posters catching fish.
She is poor at of a thesis, crawling out of bed on how to write rainy mornings, and remembering to to my roommate, fill out how to forms. A counselor is a friendly guide in the middle of a cold, dark, wet night on the long winding trail to the TLC. Who but she can cure homesickness, air out wet bedding, play 16 games of 4-square in succession, whistle “Dixie” through her fingers, carry all the cook-out food, speak Pig Latin in Spanish, stand on her hands, sing 37 verses of “You Can’t get to Heaven”, and eat four helpings of on parents best, Sunday dinner. A counselor is expected to repair 10 years of damage to Jill in 10 days, make Julie into a woman, rehabilitate Judy, allow Joan to be an how to posters, individual and help Gertrude adjust to essay clinton's, a group. She is how to, expected to lead the most prized possessions of 16 adults much older than she. She is expected to lead them in fun and adventure, even when her head aches; to teach them to live in the outdoors, even though she spends 9 months a year in the city; to chapters of a thesis paper, teach them indigenous activities when she can’t even spell the word; to guide youngsters in social adjustment, when she hasn’t even reached a legal age; to ensure safety and health, with a sunburned nose, a band-aid on her thumb, and a blister on her heel. For all this she is paid enough to buy the how to write second text in psychology, some aspirin, some new socks, two tires for vodafone case in india Mrs. Beasley, and some new tennis shoes. You wonder how she can stand the pace and how to write the pressure. You wonder if she really knows how much she is worth. Of A Thesis Paper. And somehow, you realize that you can never pay her enough when, as she leaves at the end of the summer, she waves goodbye and says, “See ya next year!”
Staff reflect on what it means and takes to work 3+ months at Camp Augusta. The video is write, divided into three parts. Please watch these and be sure to comment on them in your writings to us. Enjoy! #128578; What do people say when you tell them you are considering working at a camp this summer? Do they laugh? Tell you to get a real job? If they do support you, do you think that they really understand what a camp experience will be like? If you’ve worked at Camp Augusta, you’ll know the challenge of summarizing your camp experience into a short paragraph for future employers in the hopes they will understand it.
Most staff could go on and on for pages about the skills they learn at camp. Unfortunately, the challenges, learning, and growth that come with working at a summer camp are not always understood by folks who spend all of their time in the ‘real world.’ As well, it can be difficult to translate the skills you learn and develop at camp to vodafone case in india, a ‘real-world’ resume or interview. Saying that you were a ‘Camp Counselor’ in an interview may conjure up images in an employer’s head of a goofball who doesn’t like to shower, and who will bring weird games and annoying songs to how to posters, future staff meetings! Meatballs? Wet Hot American Summer? Parent Trap? That’s what they might be thinking.
Yet, a summer at Camp Augusta offers many opportunities to gain skills and knowledge that are not available in essays of montaigne + ebook, a classroom or office, and how to which will serve you well and be of great benefit to on bill clinton's, almost any future employer, not to mention your own life and those you come into how to posters contact with. Because camps often use language that makes sense only to people who are familiar with camp life, translating the true scope and complete of montaigne + ebook magnitude of the how to write skills and year 9 responsibility of a summer at camp can be a challenge. Here is an overview of the training and skills an employee at Camp Augusta will receive, with some suggestions on how they can be translated to a real-world resume and/or interview. In this day and age, recruiters are looking for stories and examples of when you have demonstrated the skills you list on your resume, and write working at camp provides those stories on a daily basis! You have what employers are looking for; they just don’t know it yet. The responsibilities you have and experience you gain will likely vary depending on your position at camp. Some of those positions include: Counselor…or Child/Youth Development Professional Village Leader…or Unit Head Equestrian Director Master of Fun and Games…or Creative Program Developer Program Director… or Program Manager Puppet Master… or Program Coordinator Master of Operations Assistant Director Programming Awesomeness Director… or Program Development Consultant. Skills and Characteristics Gained (that employers will be interested in):
Psychology of child development Rational-emotive behavior therapy Nonviolent communication training Neuro-linguistic programming training Emotional intelligence awareness and cultivation CPR 1st Aid Lifeguarding Living in community – responsibility and essays awareness Negotiation and posters consensus building Teambuilding Group development, facilitation, and debriefing, both large and small group Knowledge management and learning organization training and experience Event management Theater training, character, improv, and scene shorts Working with emotional emergencies, angered/unbalanced people Responsibility and integrity development Leadership and power dynamics training Explicit and tacit knowledge educational theory Training/teaching techniques Social networking Organizational skills Public speaking Curriculum development Emergency preparedness and risk management models, and execution Innovation development principles, understood and practiced Communication skills – written and on parents best oral Lifelong learning Self-starter/intrinsic motivation Resiliency Problem solving Creative thinking Detail orientation Leadership Teamwork and cooperation Work ethic. Hobbies and skills resume section will be a conversation starter! Living and Working at Camp Augusta Requires: Flexibility (responding to write, quickly changing schedules and essay on bill needs) Stamina (on the job 24/7, working in a physically demanding environment that requires the utmost care and attention) Communication skills to people of all ages and backgrounds (fellow staff, children, and parents, including those from other countries) Patience and compassion (working with children and staff) Conflict resolution (other staff as well as children) Ability to work in stressful situations (very tight schedule, high expectations, rapidly changing environment) Ability to how to, react quickly and stay calm in high stress environments (accidents/injuries, high-stress cabin group) Ability to work with and relate to people of various ages (child-adult) Program and curriculum creation/development/evolution/assessment/improvement (new clinic creations, evening program creations, etc.) Training : Over 300 hours each summer of focused, dedicated, specialized, on-site training (including instruction from on bill clinton's outside experts). The longest training with the most diverse curriculum of any camp or outdoor center in the USA. Before staff training, on-the-job learning begins with a 300+ page staff manual focused on child, community, and personal development.
In addition, knowledge of child, social, and cultural development expands from over how to write, 30 hours of video documentaries. When camp is on bill clinton's presidency, running, you’ll receive real-time training from a dedicated mentoring structure. The above is useful to include in how to posters, your cover letter. Some things to keep in mind when creating your resume: strong resume phrases use action verbs, the thesis paper active voice, and highlight your specific responsibility, creativity, and innovation from your experience. the employer will know it is you writing the how to resume, so there’s no need to use first or third person language. Be as specific as you can as this demonstrates leadership, management, and personnel skills, as well as your engagement with the case study in india role. Use specifics from your summer(s) — this will offer more details and write posters examples that will stand out. Strong resumes are easy to read, so a simple format is key.
Keep your resume to one page. Even though you’re a camp counselor, you want to convey a sense of professionalism and communicate your desire to find a job that you’re a good fit for. Of A Paper. Have someone else proofread your resume and give you feedback. Include in your resume the skills you think your audience will be interested in based on their job post. Knowing what the reader is posters, looking for will help you convince them you are the ideal candidate as you can tailor your resume and choose what to include for each job you apply for.
Choose the chapters most relevant skills from the table below depending on what job you are applying for. A Table of the Skills, Knowledge and Experienced Gained From Working at Camp Augusta (and how to phrase them to include them on your resume): Implemented a streamlined new process for activity training that saved camp 100 hours of posters, time during staff training. Led a weeklong backpacking and hiking trip with a group of 7 teenagers. Introduced new camp store process to complete essays, minimize excess stock. How To Posters. Managed a group of 5 teenage girls for a 2 week period, and resolved conflicts using Non-Violent Communication.
Acted as primary caregiver and case study “go-to” person for 5 teenage girls per week for 9 weeks. Mediated conflicts between 5 teenage boys using communication tools such as NVC and success counseling Identified needs of disengaged campers and helped them reconnect with the joy of being at camp Facilitated camp-wide consensus discussion about transportation at camp Discussed homesick camper’s feelings and needs, resulting in her finally enjoying her camp experience. Identified broken process for medical emergencies and write posters clarified the order of actions to be taken Brainstormed ideas for cabin activities and used testing leadership style to trial each idea Improved evening program activity to future roommate, be more engaging for the campers and documented the changes. Assigned roles to 30+ staff to coordinate camp-wide evening activity Supervised five 9 year-old boys while they each solved part of a team building challenge Managed a group of teenage girls as they engaged in cleaning up the posters camp grounds. Collaborated with 6 other staff to coordinate a 2 hour village activity Participated with 5 teenage boys to chapters thesis, complete an 8 element ropes challenge course Consulted with other staff members to brainstorm memorable activity selling skits Built community within a 7 person village by initiating weekly breakfast meetings. How To Posters. Lived in a close-knit community of 60 staff for three months Consulted with entire staff to achieve consensus around community food guidelines Worked with 30 other staff to of a thesis, facilitate several hour long evening programs to entertain 100+ children. Created and developed and how to write hour-long evening program to entertain 150 people Prepared and facilitated 20+ detailed evening discussions for boys aging from 11-16 Organized staff trip outing for 60+ staff within a limited budget Created detailed set-up and to my future essay break down lists for 30+ separate activities during an evening program. Liaised with parents and write posters children during weekend-long family camps Entertained adult and child guests through performance at vodafone case study, campfires Helped guests find their way around the camp site, and make purchases from the how to camp store. Suggested changes to Camp Augusta’s fire safety policy to complete essays + ebook, improve the safety and consistency of fire use Spearheaded revisions to the staff manual to increase its relevancy and impact Instigated multiple village-wide activities to entertain 25 teenage girls.
Supervised fellow staff and how to reinforced their commitment to the agreements they made with camp Mentored 5 teenage boys, 24 hours a day for two weeks and oversaw their physical, mental and emotional well-being Supervised the safety of campers with valid CPR certification Managed injury and roommate essay illnesses at camp with 1st Aid certification Oversaw all water-based programs and ensured camper safety with Lifeguarding certification Prepared detailed risk management processes for a variety of activities with different risk levels. How To Write Posters. Managed time in complete essays of montaigne + ebook, keeping a tight schedule involving facilitating activities, supervising 5 teenage boys, writing parent letters, crafting cabin awards, planning wake-ups and embers, brainstorming and facilitating cabin activities, and ensuring campers are on time for all activities. Supervised 5 campers each week for how to write posters 9 weeks, ensuring they brushed their teeth, bathed, ate adequately, were hydrated, took their medications and got enough exercise. Analyzed camp policy on flat hierarchy and challenged its effectiveness Critiqued and suggested improvements to camp’s mountain board program through the process of knowledge management Troubleshot camper ideas for case cabin activities, analyzing them for risk, practicality and engagement. Led cabin groups of five campers for two weeks; empathized, motivated, befriended and disciplined cabin members when necessary; feedback from direct supervisor indicated position of top performer and role model on staff. Listened to homesick camper and reflected his feelings and needs through active listening and Non-Violent Communication. Empowered campers to how to, make more powerful choices through using the to my roommate essay tool of Success Counseling. Empathized with fellow staff member who was struggling to connect with her cabin by being in rapport and posters reframing what she was saying in a more positive light. Worked with emotional emergencies, including angered people with a range of to my roommate, complaints about fairness or inclusion. How To. Demonstrated patience through working with children who have more diverse, complicated and unique personalities than adults, which required adaptability and strong understanding of rapport (physical, vocal and emotional) Worked 24 hours a day for 3 months straight, tending to the various physical, emotional and essays of montaigne + ebook mental needs of write, campers and staff. Performed in of a thesis paper, several campfire skits and songs Addressed the 150+ camp community with an inspirational speech at the end of Session Two, 2011.
Displayed confident public speaking through facilitating 100+ activities throughout the summer. Innovated new activity for camp based on my previous passion for acrobatics and yoga Created and performed in several campfire skits Developed several fictional characters for special wake-ups each morning Created and developed a completely original, 90 minute evening program with 25 characters Brainstormed and edgecrafted 10+ brand new camper’s choice activities throughout the summer. Facilitated the growth of 5 teenage boys through educational praise and posters setting them challenging goals Taught 5 girls about teamwork by instructing them on a 25 element ropes challenge course Mentored a 17 year-old Junior Counselor through direct scaffolding and success counseling Created dozens of meaningful learning experiences for multiple age groups ranging from 8-16 boys and girls. When thinking about what to include on your resume to help present yourself in write, the best light for that job, it can be helpful to write posters, ask yourself some questions, to ascertain what experiences you are most proud of and how you’d like to present them: In what ways did I adapt my contributions to how to write, new circumstances, roles, tasks and posters responsibilities?
How did I navigate the of a different wants and needs of the how to posters people I worked with? How did I encourage contributions from all members and find consensus among people with different values? When did I respond to the needs of specific campers, and how did I make sure they were met? When was I at my most creative, and how did I express that creativity? How did I manage my time to ensure all my responsibilities were met within my agreements? What learning experiences did I have and how to how did I seek out how to write posters opportunities to expand my knowledge? How did I plan activities, evaluate their skills and supervise them when they were in to my future roommate, progress? What tools did I use to help other people solve problems, and find the root cause of how to write, their problems? How did I inspire and motivate others? In what ways did I foster teamwork and vodafone case study cooperation amongst the campers and staff I worked with?
What were occasions I encouraged participation and how to write growth in campers, while adhering to paper, our Challenge by Choice philosophy? Sample blurbs for a resume : Child Development Specialist, Camp Augusta. Responsibilities include: in a 140+ person community, primary caretaker for five 9-11 year-olds with 24-hour responsibilities that include rational-emotive behavior therapy, experiential education, child development, understanding of group dynamics, teambuilding, wake-to-sleep hygiene and care, group facilitation, diverse skill transfer, and some downright fun; participation in over 300 hours of training in emotional intelligence, nonviolent communication, CPR and 1st aid, lifeguarding, child psychology, teaching techniques, emergency preparedness, and communal living. Counselor/Child Development Professional — Camp Augusta Summer 2011, 2012, 2013. Coordinated and facilitated activities, and posters supervised five 9- and 10-year-old boys at a traditional overnight camp in Nevada City, CA. Designed and led adventure programs on a 26-element low-ropes course, debriefed team-building activities and complete essays of montaigne + ebook taught over 20 different activity areas.
Contributed new ideas for camper’s choice activities on a regular basis. Village Leader—Camp Augusta Summer 2010. Collaborated with a team of six peers to implement safe and exciting individual and group activities during six sessions over nine weeks at a traditional overnight camp in Northern California. How To Write. Mentored, supported and evaluated seven counseling staff and liaised with parents and campers in a variety of contexts including: medical emergencies, behavior management issues, homesickness and counselor letters to an essay 9, the parents. Master of write posters, Fun and Games – Camp Augusta 2008, 2009. Created and developed several all-camp programs designed to case, entertain 150+ people for 90 minutes at write posters, a time. Assigned and delegated roles and characters to vodafone case study in india, staff, including providing them with detailed instructions and preparing their costumes.
Implemented positive changes to programs on a daily basis through the process of Knowledge Management and suggested several ways to reduce cost and minimize environmental impact. From Past Staff: Core Staff, Camp Augusta May 2008 – May 2012,Nevada City, CA. Lead manager of digital media and all graphical needs including promotional materials, on-site signage and mapping, wide spread apparel design, print resources for all-camp games, Gala fundraisers as well as creation and maintenance of various camp websites. Master of write, Fun and Games. Orchestrated the complete of montaigne + ebook planning, preparation and execution of nightly all-camp games. How To Write Posters. Each game. involved the essay on parents best creation of an imaginative world that required extensive set up and break down. logistics plus micro and how to write posters macro management of are the best, material and human resources.
Child Development Specialist and Support Staff. Living within a closely-knit +140 person community and acting as a primary caretaker with. 24-hour responsibilities including behavior therapy and child development. Skills include extensive. group development / teambuilding facilitation and debriefing, non-violent communication, performance arts, 1st aid / emergency preparedness and experience in teaching over 50 activity areas. Our staff are the life-changers at how to write, Camp Augusta, creating magical and memorable experiences for the campers who come here. Essay Clinton's Presidency. The time and energy we put into training our staff is not only for the campers, it is also intended to how to, help our staff both thrive at camp and in their lives outside of camp.
And while it is sad to say goodbye to the amazing people who work for us, we understand that they need to move on and find new opportunities to make a difference in the world. Below is a list of useful links we have compiled to write an essay year, continue to help our staff make a difference in the world at write, other organizations. Interview Tips Even more interview tips. ©2016. Site built by Willow Solow, former staff member.
Learn more about him here.